AJC poll finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in Georgia

ATLANTA — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in Georgia, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Wednesday that shows how close the contest has become less than two months until the election.

The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%.

The race has tightened since the AJC’s June poll, when Trump held a 5-point lead over President Joe Biden, with 8% of voters undecided.

The poll suggests progress for Harris in Georgia. An AJC poll conducted in July just before Biden withdrew from the race showed Trump leading Harris in a hypothetical matchup 51-46%.

Since Biden’s departure from the race, Trump continues to hold a firm grip on the party’s base. More than 90% of Georgia Republicans, about two-thirds of white voters and a majority of those 65 and over back the GOP nominee’s comeback bid.

But Harris has markedly improved on Biden’s standing with young voters, edging to a statistical tie with Trump among Georgians under 30. She also inched up among independent voters.

But Harris has more work to do to rebuild other parts of the coalition that propelled Biden’s narrow 2020 victory in Georgia.

Just 86% of Democrats and 77% of Black voters back Harris, roughly 10 points below the mark Democrats aim to hit. About 12% of Black voters — the most reliable bulwark of Democratic support in Georgia — say they haven’t made up their minds.

The enthusiasm gap between the two candidates has narrowed, with broad majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents indicating they are excited to support their picks at the polls.

And most voters who have decided say they aren’t budging. Fewer than 3% of Georgia voters say there’s a chance to change their minds about their choice for president before the election.

Georgians appear happier with their choices than they did during the last AJC poll, when only about one-quarter of voters said they were satisfied with their choices. Now, about 51% say they’re at least somewhat satisfied with their options.

Democrats are broadly more content than Republicans about the choices — a contrast to June, when about half of Democratic voters said they would swap out Biden for another contender. Only about one-third of Democrats say they are dissatisfied with their choices.

Brad Pruiett, a 50-year-old elevator mechanic, is voting for Trump but isn’t thrilled about it. The Republican’s four-year stint in office, Pruiett said, was marred by “bickering back-and-forth.” There’s a good chance of more of that if Trump wins in November, he added.

“But if Kamala Harris is elected president, there’s going to be four more years of Democrats running the country, and I don’t think that we can handle it,” said Pruiett, who lives in Jackson County. “Because in my mind, we need Republicans and Democrats working together.”

Mark Scott, a Johns Creek attorney, once considered himself the “biggest Republican on the planet.” He’s now a devoted Harris supporter, in part because of Trump’s attempts to overturn his 2020 defeat.

“I just don’t think he’s right minded to hold the office, and I think he’s only gotten worse over the last four years.”

Three leaders

A plurality of Georgians — 48% — say they think Harris is going to win in November regardless of who they support. Some 14% of Republicans expect Harris to prevail, while 8% of Democrats think Trump will win back the White House.

Voters are almost evenly split over Harris’ job performance. About 47% give her positive reviews compared to 49% who disapprove of her track record. About 48% of voters say they have a favorable impression of her — and 48% say they have an unfavorable one.

Trump is slightly underwater. A slim majority — 51% — of Georgia voters have a negative impression of him, while 46% say they see him more positively.

As for Biden, about 52% of Georgians disapprove of his job performance compared to 41% who give him positive ratings. A majority of voters (55%) say Harris’ views and policy stances are “mostly” the same as Biden’s, but not entirely.

The vice-presidential nominees haven’t swayed many Georgians so far. Nearly one-quarter of Georgians have no impression of U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s No. 2. About the same proportion has no strong feeling about Harris’ pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

The poll also asked voters about three state figures who could factor heavily into the postelection political landscape in Georgia.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, who stands for reelection in 2026, has a 39% favorable rating compared to 33% unfavorable reviews. Nearly 30% of Georgia voters had no impression of the first-term lawmaker, who upset Republican David Perdue in 2021.

A majority of Georgians (55%) had a favorable opinion of Gov. Brian Kemp, the term-limited Republican who could challenge Ossoff in 2026 or wage a White House campaign in 2028. That includes nearly one-third of Democrats and a majority of independents.

And roughly 45% of Georgians had a positive view of U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat who is also seen as a potential future White House candidate. About 41% said they have a negative opinion of Warnock and another 15% say they don’t know.

Georgians remain pessimistic about the national outlook, with nearly two-thirds saying the U.S. is headed down the wrong track. But 58% of Georgians say they expect the economy to improve over the next year.

Economic issues are by far the biggest factor in November to Georgia voters, with 43% listing either the economy and jobs or inflation and cost of living as their top priority. About 18% said preserving democracy was the top priority. Every other issue tallied in the single digits, including immigration (8%), abortion (8%) and public safety (2%).

Staff writer Michelle Baruchman contributed to this report.

AJC poll

This Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll is intended to provide a snapshot of how likely Georgia voters are feeling about this year’s presidential election and issues that could play a role in its outcome. It is the sixth in a series of polls the AJC has planned leading up to the 2024 presidential election.

It was conducted Sept. 9-15 for the AJC by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs. It questioned 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

UGA began polling for the AJC in 2018.