Latest polls suggest Japan leadership race is a three-way tussle

TOKYO — The race to become Japan’s next prime minister appears to be shaping up as a three-way battle among candidates with divergent policy views, according to the latest polling data.

Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of fiscal and monetary tools to stimulate the economy, has new momentum, while Shinjiro Koizumi, an advocate of deregulation, has given up some ground, the surveys suggest. Shigeru Ishiba, who has emphasized regional revitalization, remains popular among the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s rank-and-file.

Most of the other candidates lack sufficient support to prevail in the election, according to the surveys of LDP supporters, members and party lawmakers ahead of the Sept. 27 election for party leader. The election will almost certainly also determine Japan’s next prime minister because of the LDP’s dominance in parliament.

While public opinion ratings have been the main gauge of the candidates’ prospects so far, the new polling data includes support among lawmakers, which may be the decisive factor in the election. The large field of nine candidates makes it likely that no single candidate will secure a majority in the election, which would then trigger a run-off between the two candidates with the most votes in the first round. Almost 90% of the votes in the run-off stage are assigned to party lawmakers.

Based on surveys of LDP members and party lawmakers, the Yomiuri newspaper estimated on Sunday that Ishiba and Takaichi would have enough votes to make it into a two-way election run-off, with Koizumi close behind. The Yomiuri found strongest support among LDP lawmakers for Koizumi, a positive sign in a potential run-off.

Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister, has been one of the frontrunners in public opinion surveys. In a series of news conferences and debates since campaigning began on Sept. 12, other candidates have criticized his call for reform of the labor market to give big businesses more flexibility in laying off workers.

Koizumi has said reform is needed to help the flow of workers into start-ups and smaller businesses in new growth sectors. Political analysts say Koizumi’s support may have been eroded by public concern over his call to change Japan’s custom of jobs for life.

“While Koizumi remains among the top three candidates in popularity, he no longer appears poised to break out among LDP voters,” Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight LLC, a political risk advisory, wrote in a note to clients.

The latest polling data shows Ishiba retains strong support among LDP members and supporters, which could propel him into a run-off. A survey by the Asahi newspaper of LDP supporters showed Ishiba on 32% support, with Koizumi second on 24%. Ishiba has acknowledged his challenge is in shoring up support among LDP lawmakers, a problem he has faced in four previous attempts to win the party leadership.

Takaichi, meanwhile, was selected as the top choice among LDP supporters in a Kyodo News poll published Monday, with 28% support, ahead of Ishiba on 24%. A Nikkei newspaper poll published on Sunday also showed Takaichi in second place behind Ishiba among LDP supporters.

The most likely wild card in the election is Takayuki Kobayashi, who has emphasized economic revival over fiscal consolidation, according to the Yomiuri survey. Among LDP lawmakers, Kobayashi was the second most popular choice behind Koizumi in the newspaper’s poll. A similar poll of lawmakers taken by JNN found that Kobayashi and Koizumi were the two most popular choices.

Harris of Japan Foresight said that while Takaichi and Kobayashi appear to be competing against each other for the support of right-leaning lawmakers in the LDP, Takaichi’s strength among rank-and-file LDP members may help compensate for the lawmakers she may lose to Kobayashi. He added it was unlikely that another of the other candidates would experience a late surge.

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