Politics

/

ArcaMax

Can a political party get any attention when its rival holds a national convention? Yes, but it’s not easy

Stephen J. Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington, The Conversation on

Published in Political News

Even for former U.S. President Donald Trump, a master at attention-getting, trying to counterprogram during the Democratic National Convention is nearly impossible.

When one party’s members and supporters gather for their biggest party every four years, the other party routinely endures a week of being largely ignored, no matter how creative or dramatic its own counterprogramming efforts may be.

That doesn’t mean that opposing party campaigns should go on vacation during convention week. They can and do make their case regarding the upcoming election while the other party honors its nominees.

But with all the reporters and public attention focused on the convention, these four-day gatherings are far from optimal times for the opposing party to be heard.

The typically one-sided media attention of convention weeks is part of the reason that political campaigns usually see a post-convention bounce of a few percentage points. But the impact of conventions on public opinion used to be much greater in the past, when there was less political polarization.

In 1992, for instance, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton was a single percentage point behind incumbent GOP President George H.W. Bush when the Democratic convention started. After the convention, Clinton was up by 29 points.

In 2000, GOP candidate George W. Bush saw an 8-point gain over Democratic rival Al Gore after the 2000 Republican convention.

But those bounces are often short-lived.

As I discuss in my book Presidential Communication and Character,“ even those huge bounces in 1992 and 2000 gave way to much closer elections.

More recently, the only candidate who enjoyed a post-convention polling gain of more than 4 points was 2008 Republican nominee John McCain. He went on to lose to the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama.

The best an opposing party can hope for during convention week is a convention misfire.

The trouble is, such debacles rarely happen in an era where the presidential selection process is usually absent any last-minute drama. Designed to minimize controversy, the conventions themselves have become ever more scripted.

That wasn’t always the case.

The tumultuous Democratic convention of 1968 created lots of opportunities for Republicans to draw attention to the chaotic scene in Chicago – and, by extension, the chaos within the Democratic Party. But they didn’t need to do so, because the nationally televised images of Chicago riot police using tear gas and billy clubs to subdue anti-Vietnam War demonstrators spoke for themselves.

Troubled vice-presidential selections, like Democrat Tom Eagleton in 1972 and Republican Sarah Palin in 2008, can also trigger sustained partisan responses as Democrats quickly launched after Trump selected JD Vance, an Ohio U.S. Senator, as his running mate.

 

Those partisan attacks usually intensify in the days and weeks after the convention, particularly if the running mate struggles to find their footing on the national stage.

In the days leading up to the Democratic convention, Republican officials emphasized Democratic divisions over Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip. GOP leaders also have tried to capitalize on potential discontent over how Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee without having to go through a primary, a process that Trump has called a "coup.”

The Trump campaign has tried to paint Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, as a communist or pro-China and has falsely argued that images of enthusiastic Democratic crowds cheering on the ticket were generated by artificial intelligence.

Even though some Republicans encouraged Trump to spend less time talking about conspiracies and making character attacks against Harris, Trump is drawn to his own strategy. Instead of heeding their advice, Trump has continued his personal attacks against Harris, subsequently calling her father, a Stanford University economics professor, “a Marxist.”

So far, though, the 2024 Democratic Convention doesn’t look at all like 1968. The comparatively small number of protesters inside and outside the convention hall has not given the Republican counterprogramming team much to exploit.

Earlier this summer, Democratic efforts at counterprogramming during the Republican convention also fell flat.

The limited media attention Democrats received during Trump’s renomination week focused almost exclusively on the question of whether President Joe Biden would abandon his reelection bid – not the preferred topic of the party’s counterprogrammers.

In addition, Biden’s timing demonstrated the challenges of shaping the narrative during opposing party conventions.

By Biden making his announcement that he was leaving the race three days after the Republican convention ended on July 18, Harris’ campaign launch did not have to compete with Republican convention news.

Conventions last less than a week, and campaigns go on for months. Absent any major misfires, counterprogramming efforts this year – like so many convention years before them – won’t be remembered for long.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Stephen J. Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington

Read more:
US voters say they’re ready for a woman president − but sexist attitudes still go along with opposition to Harris

Rural voters don’t necessarily love Walz, despite the camo hat and small-town upbringing

Do Charli XCX’s and Kid Rock’s endorsements make a difference? 19% of young people admit they might

Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.


 

Comments

blog comments powered by Disqus

 

Related Channels

ACLU

ACLU

By The ACLU
Amy Goodman

Amy Goodman

By Amy Goodman
Armstrong Williams

Armstrong Williams

By Armstrong Williams
Austin Bay

Austin Bay

By Austin Bay
Ben Shapiro

Ben Shapiro

By Ben Shapiro
Betsy McCaughey

Betsy McCaughey

By Betsy McCaughey
Bill Press

Bill Press

By Bill Press
Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

By Bonnie Jean Feldkamp
Cal Thomas

Cal Thomas

By Cal Thomas
Christine Flowers

Christine Flowers

By Christine Flowers
Clarence Page

Clarence Page

By Clarence Page
Danny Tyree

Danny Tyree

By Danny Tyree
David Harsanyi

David Harsanyi

By David Harsanyi
Debra Saunders

Debra Saunders

By Debra Saunders
Dennis Prager

Dennis Prager

By Dennis Prager
Dick Polman

Dick Polman

By Dick Polman
Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

By Erick Erickson
Froma Harrop

Froma Harrop

By Froma Harrop
Jacob Sullum

Jacob Sullum

By Jacob Sullum
Jamie Stiehm

Jamie Stiehm

By Jamie Stiehm
Jeff Robbins

Jeff Robbins

By Jeff Robbins
Jessica Johnson

Jessica Johnson

By Jessica Johnson
Jim Hightower

Jim Hightower

By Jim Hightower
Joe Conason

Joe Conason

By Joe Conason
Joe Guzzardi

Joe Guzzardi

By Joe Guzzardi
John Micek

John Micek

By John Micek
John Stossel

John Stossel

By John Stossel
Josh Hammer

Josh Hammer

By Josh Hammer
Judge Andrew Napolitano

Judge Andrew Napolitano

By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano
Laura Hollis

Laura Hollis

By Laura Hollis
Marc Munroe Dion

Marc Munroe Dion

By Marc Munroe Dion
Michael Barone

Michael Barone

By Michael Barone
Michael Reagan

Michael Reagan

By Michael Reagan
Mona Charen

Mona Charen

By Mona Charen
Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

By Oliver North and David L. Goetsch
R. Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell

By R. Emmett Tyrrell
Rachel Marsden

Rachel Marsden

By Rachel Marsden
Rich Lowry

Rich Lowry

By Rich Lowry
Robert B. Reich

Robert B. Reich

By Robert B. Reich
Ruben Navarrett Jr

Ruben Navarrett Jr

By Ruben Navarrett Jr.
Ruth Marcus

Ruth Marcus

By Ruth Marcus
S.E. Cupp

S.E. Cupp

By S.E. Cupp
Salena Zito

Salena Zito

By Salena Zito
Star Parker

Star Parker

By Star Parker
Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore

By Stephen Moore
Susan Estrich

Susan Estrich

By Susan Estrich
Ted Rall

Ted Rall

By Ted Rall
Terence P. Jeffrey

Terence P. Jeffrey

By Terence P. Jeffrey
Tim Graham

Tim Graham

By Tim Graham
Tom Purcell

Tom Purcell

By Tom Purcell
Veronique de Rugy

Veronique de Rugy

By Veronique de Rugy
Victor Joecks

Victor Joecks

By Victor Joecks
Wayne Allyn Root

Wayne Allyn Root

By Wayne Allyn Root

Comics

Chip Bok Ed Wexler Christopher Weyant Adam Zyglis Bill Bramhall Bart van Leeuwen