Post-debate surveys show growing Trump lead after Biden's debate debacle

The gap between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump seen for most of 2024 is only growing wider, as people take the time to process his poor performance in a make-or-break debate showing last Thursday.

Biden, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University survey released Tuesday, is now a full three points behind the 45th President — 38% to 41% as they barrel toward an electoral rerun in November, and just two months after the same pollsters showed the pair of presidents tied in a dead heat at 37% each.

While the poll shows partisan voters are still very much “dug in on both sides,” it’s Trump standing out as the candidate of choice for 25% of those choosing to recover from Biden’s debate balk by considering another option, according to the David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center.

“It is still a margin of error race right now, but the Biden campaign must be concerned about the defection of second-choice votes of third-party voters,” the political scientist said with the poll’s release.

“The Biden strategy all along was that as third-party candidacies evaporated, those voters would rotate to Biden. This research suggests the tables have turned and the Stein/West/RFK voters he may have been counting on in November have left him after Thursday’s debate,” Paleologos said.

A CNN poll also out on Tuesday came with even more dire news for Biden, showing the elder statesman trailing his Republican rival by six points and well outside the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error. Most voters, according to pollsters, are saying the Democratic Party will have a better shot of keeping the White House for another four years if they ditch the incumbent president as their candidate of choice.

“Three-quarters of U.S. voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket,” CNN said of its findings.

The network also found that Vice President Kamala Harris, who has never seen an approval rating above 50%, despite her largely ceremonial position, is “within striking distance” of Trump and polling better than her boss.

“47% of registered voters support Trump, 45% Harris, a result within the margin of error that suggests there is no clear leader under such a scenario. Harris’ slightly stronger showing against Trump rests at least in part on broader support from women (50% of female voters back Harris over Trump vs. 44% for Biden against Trump) and independents (43% Harris vs. 34% Biden),” pollsters wrote.

A Harvard/Harris survey released Monday also shows Trump’s lead has grown to six points in a race against both Biden and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a stretch that expands to eight points in a five-way race that includes third party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West.

According to the poll, Trump won the debate by every surveyed metric, outperforming Biden on who seemed more presidential, who knew more about the issues, who is trustworthy enough to lead the nation, which man is the better communicator and has the best policy ideas, who was more engaging and handled questions better, which had more consistent messaging, and who is more electable.

Over half of voters, according to Harvard’s pollsters, now say Biden is getting worse at his job as commander-in-chief, and seven out of 10 think his “public lapses” are growing more frequent and problematic. Six out of every 10 voters think’s Biden’s age and their impressions of his stamina represent a danger to national security.

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