'Heavy lifting, brother': Can Democrats recapture their mojo in Kentucky's 6th District?

But sitting inside a safe red seat means that Barr can stray outside the moderating lines that competitive races force politicians to play within.

Free from having to court many Democratic voters, Barr is free to appeal to the Republican base, which will determine the victor of the next competitive U.S. Senate primary, potentially as early as the spring of 2026.

Barr is seen as a top-tier candidate to replace Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell whenever the senior senator publicly announces his retirement.

For now, Cravens’ argument against Barr is that he’s slid too far to the right in the intervening years.

“He’s turning toward the Trump wing of the Republican primary, like the statement he made about the Jan. 6 convicts,” Cravens said. “That’s absurd.

“That’s not a position in line with the vast majority of Kentuckians.”

Staker branded that critique “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” and readily leaned into the presidential race as a way to frame the choice in the 6th Congressional District.

“It is evident that he is desperately trying to make this election about President Trump, but in reality, it is about (President) Biden and his failed policies that have caused record high inflation, a national security crisis at our southern border, and rampant violent crime that continues to terrorize our citizens,” Staker said.

But that national aperture is what worries some Kentucky Democrats, like Martina Jackson from Madison County. She recalls that one of Barr’s primary tactics that first won him the seat in 2012 was to nationalize the race against Rep. Ben Chandler.

“He focused on Barack Obama, slinging mud there. That shift has played a role in the way people are invested in local issues,” Jackson said. “It kind of takes away from what’s happening in Kentucky and what needs to happen. People are focused on these national issues, some of which may not actually impact us.”

Jack Dulworth, a Democratic National Committee member from Kentucky, named Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman and former Lexington Mayor Jim Gray as candidates who would immediately command credibility, resources and attention with the ability to appeal to moderates who populate the Lexington metropolitan area.

“You’ve gotta have a candidate who really, really goes after it,” said McGrath, who now runs two political action committees that mostly do work outside of Kentucky. “When I ran, that was my full-time job. That’s really hard to do for a lot of people.”

But that fantasy Democratic candidate may not arise until the 6th Congressional District becomes an open seat, seeding the ambition needed to seize a rare opportunity.

“It’s always more competitive when you’re not going against an incumbent,” said McGrath, who didn’t rule out another run at some point. “Is it winnable? Redistricting made it so much worse, so I don’t know.”

In the last decade, the highest turnout 6th District Congressional election came in 2020 when 378,000 central Kentuckians showed up for the 2020 presidential race between Trump and Biden. In midterm years, participation slumps to around 245,000 voters.

This year, in a ruby red state Trump carried by 26 points last time, there may not be much incentive for persuadable voters to come out, especially if there isn’t a belief Barr has a credible challenger.

The result: Gradual disengagement.

“It makes people feel like there’s no hope in the process of voting and in running for office,” said Jackson, who admittedly steeps herself in optimism despite the present odds.

“In politics you have to have a little bit of delusion to have that hope.”

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