A political ploy designed by Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro to regain international legitimacy through heavily manipulated elections appears to be spiraling out of control for the socialist leader as support for a previously unknown rival reaches apparently insurmountable levels.

A new poll over the weekend shows that opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia now has a 40-point lead over Maduro, less than two weeks after the 74-year-old former diplomat unexpectedly got the united support of the main opposition parties.

The margin is expected to grow even higher as Venezuela nears the July 28 presidential election, and while the regime has for long been accused of holding fraudulent elections, observers say that González Urrutia’s lead might now be too large to steal.

“The question no longer is if González Urrutia can win in July because that has already been settled. The question now is if the government would actually be willing to yield power in January,” said Venezuelan pollster Jesús Seguías, whose firm Datincorp provided the new numbers. “Venezuela is in a huge mess. You don’t really need a poll to see that the entire country wants a change.”

According to the Datincorp poll, the opposition candidate now enjoys a lead of 62% over Maduro’s 20%. The other nine candidates got a total among them of 12%.

But the poll, conducted on April 28th and based on 1,200 interviews conducted in 19 different states, showed that only 55% of those consulted actually knew who González Urrutia is. “If this is the support he has when only half the country knows who he is, what will it be like when 95% of the people do?” Seguías said.

The 40-point margin came only a week after another poll, made by firm Meganális, showed the beginning of the trend, with the former diplomat with a 20-point lead.

After a series of monthlong negotiations with the Biden administration, Maduro had agreed to hold a presidential elections in an accord signed in October with the Venezuelan opposition. Getting important concessions from the U.S., which partially lifted its oil sanctions on the South American country, the regime had agreed to reform the often criticized electoral system and to allow any opposition leader to compete.

Maduro reneged on the deal soon after it became evident that opposition leader Maria Corina Machado would soundly beat him in an election. He proceeded to ban her candidacy and then moved to block the candidacy of her proxy, university professor Corina Yoris. The Venezuelan strongman had hoped to have conditions in place for an election victory despite his abysmal lack of popularity, by running against 12 little-known, or other wise little-liked, contenders, who would split up the opposition vote among them.

The plan had seemed likely to succeed until Machado and the main opposition parties suddenly decided to unite and back González Urrutia.

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