So far, President Donald Trump's tariff brinkmanship has worked out well for him. He forced Colombia to bend to his will on repatriating its migrants and brought the leaders of Canada and Mexico rushing back to the table to talk border security.

But what happens should his luck run out? The game Trump is playing could turn American consumers into big losers.

Canada and Mexico won a 30-day reprieve from Trump's threatened 25% tariffs on practically all goods except petroleum products they ship to the United States by agreeing to take action to limit the flow of drugs and illegal border crossers.

Peter Navarro, Trump's trade counselor, said the postponed levies should be viewed as part of "a drug war, not a trade war."

But they're much more likely to impact the flow of consumer goods than they are drug traffic. That's particularly true of Canada, which is the origin point of just 0.2% of the fentanyl that enters the United States, but $1 trillion of goods and services purchased by American households and manufacturers. Everything from lumber to automobiles will cost more or become harder to find if the tariffs are put in place.

Mexico responded to Trump's threat by rushing 10,000 troops to its border with the U.S. to help curtail illegal crossings that were already dropping sharply under the new administration's immigration crackdown. It ships $480 billion in goods to America. Detroit's auto industry is hugely dependent on Mexican manufacturers, and grocery shoppers are reliant on its meat, fruit and vegetables.

Such high tariffs risk forcing the auto industry into a downturn and taking the rest of the economy with it and certainly will bring another crushing round of price spikes at grocery stores.

The practice of unfettered trade between the three nations was institutionalized in 1992 with the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The pact was updated and renamed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2020, during Trump's first term.

The trade agreements have created a mutually beneficial co-dependency between the three countries that share the North American continent. We have our differences, but we are friends who have built the trust and respect necessary for nations to live in such close proximity in peace and prosperity. The president should do nothing to jeopardize that special relationship as he negotiates an end to whatever grievances he felt merited the imposition of tariffs on two of our most reliable trading partners.

Still to come are the 10% levies set to take effect next week against China, with whom the U.S. does nearly $800 billion worth of trade. They may be much more difficult to forestall.

American consumers are heavily reliant on cheap goods from China, which are sold by discount retailers such as Walmart and online sites such as Temu. If tariffs raise the price of clothing, electronics, appliances, tools and other everyday products it will be a heavy blow to household budgets.

Trump warned Americans they would feel some pain from his tariff diplomacy. But pocketbook pain was not what they expected from a president who on the campaign trail promised to protect them from the devastating inflation that marked the Biden era.

Breaking that vow so early in his presidency carries not only economic risk for the nation, but also political risk for Trump and Republicans. Voters proved in the 2024 election they have long memories when it comes to politicians who inflict financial pain on their families.

Trump has come out on top of these early initial tariff showdowns. He shouldn't push his luck.

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