President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to impose trade tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% unless Mexico “secures” its border with the United States. The concept of using Mexico as an arm of the U.S. immigration enforcement is not new.

During his first administration, Trump pressured Mexico to increase the number of detentions and deportations of migrants from Mexico, accelerating a trend that had already begun under the Obama administration. Mexico became a de facto detention center, where migrants from Latin America and other parts of the world seeking protection in the U.S. were forced to wait while their cases — and futures — were decided.

Over the course of the Trump and Obama administrations, I traveled across Mexico and witnessed firsthand the transformation these pressures were causing in the Mexican immigration system. I observed increasing numbers of checkpoints and raids in highways, bus stations and workplaces throughout Mexico.

As a result of these efforts, migrants from Central and South America were moving increasingly to and through isolated areas in Mexico to avoid detection and detention. This mirrors what has been thoroughly documented along the U.S. border, where migrants attempt to cross through more remote (and therefore deadly) areas to avoid the U.S. Border Patrol.

I also witnessed a burgeoning migration industry throughout Mexico, an industry that had once existed mainly along the U.S. border. Towns that were previously far away from migrant routes have become key transit points, shaping local economies and turning migrants into commodities rather than recognizing their humanity.

In border areas, on both sides, I observed how the criminalization and persecution of migrants by Mexican authorities at all levels forced them to wander the streets, beg for food and gather around bus stations, shelters, or any place that felt marginally safer than being out in the open. And I saw increasing numbers of migrants stranded without the means to move forward in various parts of Mexico that were previously not frequented by migrants.

As a result, migrants became more and more visible to locals. And, just like we have seen in the United States, this visibility has led Mexican locals to complain that migrants use services meant for Mexicans or bring undesirable diseases into the country. By the time I left the field, migrants were frequently conveying to me and other investigators that they were experiencing discrimination in Mexico in jobs and the receipt of essential services like health care and education.

Mexico is being pushed into treating migrants from other countries, including Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, in the same way that the U.S. has treated undocumented Mexicans for decades. And in its eagerness to serve U.S. interests, Mexico has transformed its relationship with migrants, allowing the same abuses of migrants that occur on the U.S. side of the border.

To date, Mexico has shown willingness to cooperate with Trump’s immigration plans. This cooperation is key: Mexico’s immigration policies can help him realize his much-touted dream of a completely closed U.S. border, while avoiding the challenges he can expect within the United States.

But will Mexico continue to cooperate with Trump? Maybe. The Mexican government has seen a change in head of state since Trump’s last term. Its newly elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will face internal resistance to stepped-up immigration enforcement from civil and religious organizations that have expanded their support of migrants over the last few years. And Trump’s overreach will likely be met with pushback here in the U.S.

Trump’s economic clout is powerful, and anti-immigrant sentiment has a foothold in Mexico. Time will tell whether that is enough to hold the countries’ border-based partnership together. In the meantime, I expect to see more of the same — migrants suffering at the hands of two states in a system that does not deter migrants, but only punishes them.

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Ángel Escamilla García, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of sociology at Yale University, specializing in international migration from Latin America. He is a Public Voices Fellow of Yale and The OpEd Project. This column was produced for Progressive Perspectives, a project of The Progressive magazine, and distributed by Tribune News Service.

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