Editorial: Syria's future will be brighter with US help
Published in Op Eds
The blindingly fast assault that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad over the weekend may not have been, as President-elect Donald Trump rushed to declare, America’s fight. But the U.S. shouldn’t ignore its continuing interests in the battle-scarred country — or the opportunities the rebel victory presents.
Assad’s ouster is, on one level, an unmitigated good. In 13 years of civil war, his regime tortured, starved, disappeared and slaughtered hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Government forces backed by Russia and Iran bombarded civilians with barrel bombs and deadly chemical weapons; more than half the population has been displaced. The country’s human-development indicators have regressed 35 years. Drugs have become one of its most valuable exports. At long last, Syrians may have a chance to heal scars, reunite with loved ones and rebuild.
At the same time, recent experience illustrates just how badly things could go. The Islamist insurgents who spearheaded the drive on Damascus have sought to present a more moderate face; so did Taliban leaders in Afghanistan before they imposed medieval restrictions on women. In Iraq, sectarian retribution against regime loyalists sparked a vicious, yearslong insurgency that eventually gave rise to Islamic State. In Libya, meddling by outside powers has fueled a political stalemate that continues to paralyze the country more than a decade after the fall of Moammar Qaddafi.
Washington’s ability to shape what happens next is limited. That said, three priorities are worth focusing on.
The first is preventing an Islamic State resurgence. While gravely weakened, the terrorist group has nonetheless ramped up attacks within Syria dramatically this year. Kurdish forces in the northeast have struggled to secure jails housing more than 50,000 former jihadists and their relatives.
The roughly 900 U.S. troops stationed in the country are vital to supporting the Kurds and monitoring Islamic State fighters; the U.S. launched a wave of strikes against the militants even as Assad fled for Moscow. Until any new government has proved itself willing to suppress the terror group, the U.S. would be wise not to withdraw its forces, as Trump has long advocated.
The U.S. should also work with European and regional allies to ensure a representative transitional government. Some sort of understanding will have to be reached with Sunni rebel groups, their patron Turkey and the Kurds, lest infighting imperil counterterrorism efforts.
While the process should be Syrian-led, the U.S. can exert influence: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the leading rebel faction, grew out of an offshoot of al-Qaeda and remains listed as a foreign terrorist organization; its leader has a $10 million bounty on his head. Washington should lay out clear and reasonable conditions for the new government to meet before those designations are lifted.
Finally, the U.S. should seize on the newly exposed weaknesses of its rivals to pursue its other goals, in the Middle East and beyond. The Assad regime’s former backers in Moscow and Tehran are reeling. Iran’s “Shiite Crescent” encircling Israel threatens to fracture, severing supply lines to its proxy Hezbollah. If Russia loses access to bases in Syria, it will struggle to project influence in the region and beyond.
Trump is already calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table. The incoming U.S. president should be leaning on Moscow now, rather than Kyiv, to seek a peace deal with strong security guarantees for Ukraine. His new administration should also work with allies to present Iran with a stark choice: Either negotiate firm limits on its nuclear and missile programs, as well as its support for regional militias, or face a far tougher sanctions regime.
For too long, Syria has been a source of instability and pain. The U.S. should do what it can to ensure something better emerges from that trauma.
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The Editorial Board publishes the views of the editors across a range of national and global affairs.
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