One of Donald Trump’s enduring assertions is that Vladimir Putin would never have dared to invade Ukraine if Trump had been reelected in 2020. It’s an interesting hypothetical that relies on the premise that Putin, intimidated by Trump, was afraid to invade during Trump’s four years in office, waiting to act—according to this theory—until the arrival of the weaker Biden administration.

But is this true, or does it make the common error of confusing correlation with causation?

As far back as 2005, Putin said that “the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” A revanchist desire to reassert sovereignty over former Soviet vassals burned ardently in Putin’s heart long before Trump came on the scene.

Putin’s dream turned into action in 2008 when Russian troops invaded the former Soviet “republic” of Georgia. Then-President George W. Bush said, “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.”

But Bush, along with NATO and the EU, did accept it, and Russia still occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory.

Ignoring the leader of her own party’s failure to act, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, foreshadowing Trump, tried to shift the blame to John McCain’s opponent: “After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.”

Blaming Obama was politically tendentious, but at least she was right about Putin: In 2014, he invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and sent operatives into eastern Ukraine, marking the slow start of the current war.

The West expressed its disapproval of the invasion and applied sanctions, but that was about it. As the war simmered in the background, the United States—including Trump—accepted the status quo until February 2022, when Putin marched on Kyiv.

Why didn’t Putin attack Ukraine while Trump was still in office? Here’s a better question: Why would he?

Tyranny can afford to be patient, especially since Trump was already taking actions that supported Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine. Putin had no greater goal than weakening NATO, and Trump was publicly airing his half-hearted commitment to the alliance. Trump was supplying some weapons to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but Putin could see clearly that Trump’s commitment was transactional (“I would like you to do us a favor, though.” Yes, Trump really did say that.)

Furthermore, Trump was demonstrating confidence in Putin and giving him standing and credibility, most remarkably in 2018, when Trump was asked if he believed his own intelligence agencies regarding allegations of Russian meddling in our elections or if he believed Putin: “President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be.”

Of course it was Russia. But why would Putin rock Trump’s boat when it was already cruising in the direction he wanted? If Trump had been reelected in 2020, it’s entirely possible—even likely—that Putin would have invaded Ukraine during Trump’s second term, and he probably would have had a much easier time of it.

Trump contends that Putin waited until the “weak” Biden administration was in office before he invaded, but, ironically, Biden has mustered a defense of Ukraine among our NATO allies and the European Union that Trump was unlikely to have been able or willing to do.

Trump, vulnerable to flattery, inclined toward hubris and out of his league with brutal world-class autocrats, imagines that he can intimidate a ruthless, calculating tyrant such as Putin and frustrate his long game. Vladimir must be amused.

Putin, of course, hoped that Trump would win in 2020, and he tried to help him. When Trump lost, Putin recalculated.

As it turned out, he miscalculated. But tyranny is not only patient, it’s persistent. The war in Ukraine has slowed down, but Putin can afford to temporize.

As you read this, we are in the middle of an important election. Who do you think that Putin, in his dark heart, hopes will win this time?

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