Editorial: Florida consumers would pay the price for Trump's mass deportation idea

Republicans clearly are enamored with Donald Trump’s promise of “mass deportations” of undocumented people as a solution to the border crisis; about 86% say they approve of the idea, according to a September Scripps News/Ipsos survey. Some Democrats agree, about 25%, in the same poll.

But even if you think rounding up and deporting a million people a year — which Trump running mate JD Vance recently called a “starting point” — is something we should do in this country, land of immigrants, what about the massive economic pain this idea is likely to inflict, especially in South Florida?

Consider this stunning statistic: According to the American Immigration Council, one in 20 — or 1 million — residents in Florida could be deported under this proposal, as the Miami Herald wrote Wednesday. One in 20? Just how much of the work force are we willing to lose to this ill-considered and inhumane idea?

In Miami-Dade County, as in many parts of the country, we are heavily reliant on immigrants — with documents but also, critically, without — to work in hotels, on farms, in restaurants, on construction sites and in our all-important tourism industry. Many of those are jobs Americans won’t do.

The council’s report sketched out devastating potential consequences to Florida, including the loss of a total of 5% of its population. That would hit hard in industries like agriculture and construction. Can we really afford to worsen housing costs in this already overpriced state?

If even part of Trump’s promise were to come true — he wants to deport 13.3 million undocumented or otherwise removable immigrants in “the largest deportation effort in American history” — Floridians have already gotten a glimpse of what would happen, and it isn’t pretty.

Last year, backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Florida Legislature passed Senate Bill 1718, requiring private companies with more than 25 workers to use the federal E-Verify database to screen workers. It also made it a crime to transport an undocumented immigrant across state lines and required hospitals to ask about immigration status.

Before the ink was even dry on DeSantis’ signature, immigrants began moving out of the state, worsening an already tight labor market. (The state unemployment rate remains at just 3.3%.) Even some of those here legally moved, afraid for undocumented family members.

The federal government estimates that about 40% of farmworkers are undocumented. In Florida, after the law was passed, farmers didn’t have enough people to pick the crops. Vegetables rotted in the fields. Some farmers said they would avoid hiring more than 25 people to bypass the new law.

Similar legislation was passed in Georgia in 2011. The worker shortage that followed cost an estimated $140 million in crop losses that year, according to the immigration council’s Oct. 2 report.

And what happens when employers can’t find enough workers? Wages have to go up to attract employees. Guess who pays for that: consumers.

Even if, in these inflationary times, you’re willing put your wallet on the line and pay more for produce and construction and restaurant meals, that’s far from the end of the projected financial impacts. Since this effort would require the construction of detention camps, deporting people could run about $88 billion a year by some estimates. One huge deportation could conservatively cost $315 billion, according to the American Immigration Council. That’s taxpayer money, of course.

The financial impact would stretch far beyond Florida, too. Even the annual U.S. GDP would likely take a hit — the report estimates the GDP could drop by up to 6.8%. And local government would feel the pain. The report noted that undocumented immigrants paid nearly $70 billion in local, state and federal taxes in 2022 alone.

Americans are fed up with the border problems. Fair enough. But a massive deportation to try to solve that issue will only serve to create far worse problems and pass the pain on to all of us. Florida, a state with one of the largest foreign-born populations, should know better than to fall for this unsound idea.

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