Frank Barry: How Democrats can flip red districts blue

Political consultants and pundits debate whether presidential campaigns should devote more resources to activating the base or persuading the undecided. For congressional candidates who are challenging the majority party, however, prioritizing persuasion is a must.

At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, I sat down with two House candidates running to unseat freshmen Republicans to ask: What does it take a to turn a red district blue?

One of them I’ve known for many years through New York politics: John Avlon, the former CNN host running against Representative Nick LaLota on Long Island. The other, Rachel Bohman, is taking on Representative Brad Finstad in a district that’s been thrust into the national spotlight: Tim Walz’s old seat in southern Minnesota.

We met for a beer at Berghoff’s, a Chicago institution since 1898, a time when the city — like many others — was defined by the kinds of ethnic enclaves that JD Vance sees as a source of crime, based on his backwards interpretation of Martin Scorsese’s The Gangs of New York.

The film’s villain, Bill the Butcher, reflects the type of politics now personified by Donald Trump: nativism wrapped in an American flag and undergirded by the threat of violence. But what’s true of Trump isn’t true of most of his voters, as Avlon pointed out.

“It’s unfair to say it’s all a xenophobic impulse,” he said of the way voters think of the border. “I don’t think it is.”

“What people miss sometimes,” he said, “is that for a lot of working folks — I hear this — having a porous border, it doesn’t seem fair. It’s not fair to people who’ve gone through the system the right way. It’s not fair to folks who find themselves competing for jobs with undocumented workers. It is an issue of fairness, and that’s why we need to fix it — because we need to restore faith that it works. That resonates with folks.”

Bohman used the same f-words — fair and fix — when discussing immigration. “I talk a lot about how we just need to fix the system to make sure we’re doing things legally and fair, respecting the people who immigrated here and did it the right way. But all in all, we need an influx of workers — think about our meatpacking plants.”

An ICE raid of a meatpacking plant in her district did not sit well with local residents. Having law enforcement round people up for deportation “is not the way to make sure that our communities and our economy continue to thrive. If they’re here and they’re working, we need to find better, faster pathways” to legalization, she said. “We absolutely need the workforce to continue our economy, especially in the agricultural sector.”

Despite the “Mass Deportation Now” signs held up during the Republican National Convention, most GOP voters don’t support it in their own communities, said Avlon and Bohman. For Democratic candidates, it’s critical to localize — and humanize — immigration, including at the border. “Young babies and children suffered separation from their mothers or parents at the border when Donald Trump was president, and that still remains in people’s minds,” Bohman said. “They don’t want to see a repeat of that.”

Localizing and humanizing problems and solutions is at the heart of their campaigns. On climate change, for instance, Avlon said: “On Long Island, we’ve got 1,000 miles of coastline, and I think we can depolarize the issue of climate change mitigation because it affects everybody. We’ve had massive storms — flooding, rock slides. Coastal erosion doesn’t give a damn what political party you belong to. We can create a tax incentive to make your property more resilient, whether you’re a family or a small business. I think that resonates.”

Although 1,300 miles separate Montauk from Mankato, the issues Avlon and Bohman brought up — including affordability, housing, health care, reproductive rights and public safety — were largely the same. And while the local dynamics differ, their approaches to communicating with voters are often similar.

Here are some of the key strategies they are deploying to contrast themselves with their opponents in ways that appeal to center-right Republicans and independents. Whether they and other Democrats running uphill battles for Congress can pull off upsets will depend in large part on how well they execute these strategies — and how effectively the top of the ticket reiterates and reinforces them.

Emphasize effectiveness. “My opponent ran two years ago as a farmer in an ag district saying he was going to get a farm bill done,” Bohman said. “And the farm bill has gone nowhere.” Her beef with him is less about policy — “He and I are not that far apart on the farm bill” — and more about competence. She noted that a ranking of House Republicans named him the least effective member. (In fairness: It was actually a three-way tie.) “I’ve been distinguishing myself by saying that there are people who are talkers and there are people who are doers,” she said. “And I’m a doer.” Voters like a doer.

Embrace bipartisanship. Voters need to be able to draw the connection between hyper-partisanship and congressional paralysis. As an example, Avlon cited the bipartisan border bill that Republicans defeated after Trump denounced it. “He wants to politicize the border,” Avlon said of LaLota, “I want to solve it. More fixing, less fighting.” Bohman is touting cooperation, too. “We’ve been running on country over party, finding our common ground,” she said.

Broaden the attack on affordability. Affordability is a top concern for voters in both their districts, and “not just grocery store inflation,” said Avlon. “It’s really an extension of the decades-long middle-class squeeze,” which has helped fuel support for Trump’s populism. “It’s not a coincidence that we’ve hollowed out the middle of our politics at the same time that we’ve hollowed out the middle of our economy – those two things are connected.” He talked about letting families keep more of their income by expanding the Child Care Tax Credit and restoring the deduction for state and local taxes.

Win over Mom and Pop. Bohman spoke about small town America being “eaten up” by big business. “You can’t be for wanting to rebuild the middle class and be seen as not working with small businesses,” Avlon said. “The reality is that small businesses can’t often afford to deal with the regulatory burdens and bureaucratic burdens that big businesses can, because they can afford a phalanx of lawyers and accountants. So I think that’s something that Democrats need to really lean into more, and make sure small businesses know that we’re on their side.”

Promote freedom — and families. Vice President Kamala Harris has made freedom a central theme of her campaign, especially on reproductive rights and the right to marry. Avlon and Bohman pair those freedoms with another traditional Republican theme: respecting and supporting families. “A real pro-family agenda doesn’t punish people,” Avlon said. “It’s making it more affordable to bring a child into the world and raise a child. And that’s what a child tax credit does. That’s what baby bonds do.” He cited IVF, too. “That’s a positive pro-family agenda — not a punitive one that says that women should stay in marriages where there is abuse,” a reference to Vance’s critical comments about no-fault divorce laws.

Mind the debt. “Fiscal responsibility is a core value for many, many people,” Bohman said. “They want to make sure that they’ve done a good job with the resources we have, and they want to know that the country will be in good shape for their children or grandchildren. And so you have to make sure that when you talk about spending, you’re also talking about balancing that against any kind of debt.”

Back law enforcement. Avlon told the story of knocking on doors in his district as House Republicans were pushing to cut funding to the FBI, ATF, DOJ and COPS program. An FBI agent who opened the door said, “Talk about defund the police — Republicans are actually doing it!” More voters need to understand that, Avlon said: “We need to take that narrative back. Democrats want to re-fund the police, and we need to be clear that we stand with law enforcement — that Democrats are tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime.”

Defend democracy globally. Bohman said she got more emails protesting Finstad’s April vote in opposition to military aid for Ukraine than almost any other issue. That, said Avlon, “totally tracks with my experience.” His support for Israel has also been central to his campaign. “Most folks realize that there is a broad bipartisan belief that American leadership in the world matters and that we need to stand up to tyrants and terrorists,” he said. “And when you send a clear message on that, you really can unite folks.”

Show up. “If Democrats show up and listen in places that Democrats don’t always do,” Avlon said, trust begins to develop. Bohman agreed and cited Walz as evidence: “Every time I hear from people across the district, they always have a story” about Walz. “It’s not some policy that he did, it’s a personal story – about how Tim had dinner with them,” or some other community connection they made with him. Both Bohman and Avlon have been critical of their opponents for not holding any open town hall meetings and have promised to be more accessible to constituents.

Wave the flag. In Chicago, Democrats put Old Glory and other patriotic messaging front and center. That’s smart, said Avlon: “I wrote an op-ed on July 4 about reclaiming the American flag. There is a concern, at least in our district, that the flag has been co-opted in a hyper-partisan symbol, and it’s not — it can’t be. We can’t allow that to happen, and so I think that’s a powerful message to send when people realize you’re earnestly patriotic.”

Over the course of our hour-long conversation, neither candidate brought up Trump’s conviction on fraud charges related to his porn star payoffs. “Not interested in debating Trump’s personal life,” Bohman said. And while she also shies away from discussing January 6th — she doesn’t think it will matter much in the voting booth — when it comes up, she draws a stark contrast: “My opponent is an election denier, and I am a former election official.” She believes voters are concerned about whether Trump “will break our rules of democracy again.”

Avlon leaned more directly into January 6th and spoke of the “need to build a broad patriotic coalition to defend democracy.” He hopes this election will be “the revolt of the reasonable.” Sparking it will require a lot of respectful reaching across the partisan divide – and the liberal use of f-words.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Frank Barry is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and member of the editorial board covering national affairs. He is the author of the new book, "Back Roads and and Better Angels: A Journey Into the Heart of American Democracy."

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