Best Thing for Republican Party: For Trump to Lose Big

It seems like it’s been dragging on for three years – which it has! – but now, with Labor Day behind us, the 2024 presidential campaign is officially underway. And it’s a totally different campaign than any of us expected, just two months ago.

So much has changed in so short a time. It was only on June 27 that Joe Biden totally blew his debate with Donald Trump. It was only on July 21 that Biden announced his decision to step down and pass the torch to Kamala Harris. And, since then, in just six short weeks, the world has turned upside down.

Instead of embarking on a rushed, divisive primary, Democrats quickly rallied behind Harris. She proved to be an outstanding candidate. She shot up in the polls. She made an excellent choice in selecting Tim Walz as her running mate. She gave a great acceptance speech at the convention. She’s generated more excitement in the Democratic Party since Barack Obama’s first campaign. And she now leads in every demographic group except old white men.

Which leads to a few observations on the state of the race today.

One. If the biggest problem for Democrats six weeks ago was despair, the biggest problem today is overconfidence. Kamala Harris may be slowly climbing up in the polls, but this campaign is far, far, from over. No matter how long the honeymoon lasts, no matter how many Republicans like Liz Cheney endorse her, this race is still too close to call.

God knows why, but some 40 percent to 45 percent of Americans will vote for Donald Trump, no matter what he says or does. When you factor in amnesia about what a disaster Trump’s presidency was, plus bias against a woman, especially a Black woman, Kamala Harris could still lose this race and Donald Trump, as impossible as that is to believe, could still win it.

Which only underscores the most important message for Democrats that came out of the Chicago convention, first stressed by Michelle Obama and then picked up by every speaker that followed: Don’t fret, don’t worry, don’t complain. Get off your butt and “ Do something!” Kamala Harris can only win in November if every Democrat or non-Trump Republican talks to every friend, knocks on every door, makes every phone call, and writes every check possible between now and November 5.

Two. As I argued in last week’s column, this election is not going to be waged over differences in policy, it’s going to be decided on how people feel about two different people. Or, more to the point, how people feel about Donald Trump. Period. And, on that score, there was good news this week. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Kamala Harris with a 46 percent favorable rating, compared to Trump’s 33 percent. Even more troublesome for Trump: He’s 25 percent underwater in favorability. While 33 percent like him, 58 percent of Americans say they don’t like him – which is stunning for someone in the spotlight for the last eight years.

Of course, that has its downside. Confronted with those dismal favorability ratings, Trump campaign advisers privately admit they know they can’t make Trump more likable. So their only hope is to make Kamala Harris more unlikable – through personal insults, lies, invective, and smears. It’s the standard Trump playbook. It’s going to get ugly.

Three. The most interesting new wrinkle on 2024 this week came from Jonathan Martin, politics bureau chief at Politico. In recent conversations with many Republican leaders, all publicly Trump-supporters, Martin was surprised to discover one common theme: in order to move beyond Trump and repair the Republican Party, they all privately hoped that Trump would lose!

“The best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for former President Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly,” Martin wrote. “GOP leaders won’t tell you that on the record. I just did.” Note: They believe it’s not only important that Harris win, but that she win big. The more decisively Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college, they told Martin, the less political oxygen Trump will have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, more importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party. May their dreams come true.

Four. Sixty days is a long way to go in politics. Anything could still happen. Next week’s debate could be a game-changer. But at this point, looking at the direction things are going, it’s better to be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.

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(Bill Press is host of The BillPressPod, and author of 10 books, including: “From the Left: My Life in the Crossfire.” His email address is: bill@billpress.com. Readers may also follow him on Twitter @billpresspod.)