ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane Milton is forecast to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast after midnight as a major Category 4 hurricane with “devastating” 130 mph winds and 15-foot surge, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone,” forecasters said. “This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials.”

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, the center of Milton was located about 250 miles southwest of Tampa moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, dropping from a Category 5 hurricane it had been overnight.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Florida until 9 a.m. including Osceola and Polk counties in Central Florida. The watch area could expand during the day.

Tornado warnings have already begun with a dicey weather system ahead of Milton’s main circulation moving up through South Florida, with alerts sent by 8 a.m. near Marco Island, Immokalee, Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

The storm’s center is compact for now with hurricane-force winds extending out 30 miles, but tropical-storm force winds have been expanding since Tuesday now out to 145 miles from its center.

“The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening,” the NHC stated. “However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state.”

The forecast track’s cone of uncertainty ranges from Port Charlotte to the south and Clearwater to the north, with a potential center moving near Sarasota south of Tampa Bay moving inland by 2 a.m. Thursday with 130 mph sustained winds and 160 mph gusts.

“Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles,” the NHS stated.

It’s then forecast to shift to an east-northeast path across the state going across southern Polk, Osceola and Brevard counties exiting into the Atlantic still as a Category 1 hurricane near Melbourne with 80 mph sustained winds and 100 mph gusts.

“Milton’s wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida,” forecasters said. “Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.”

Conditions in South Florida have already begun to deteriorate as an area of heavy rain ahead of the hurricane is beginning to spread across the peninsula.

“Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida,” forecasters said.

Millions were ordered to evacuate and the state’s highways have been clogged and residents faced stations without fuel. Mandatory evacuation orders for barrier islands, mobile homes and low-lying areas were issued across 11 counties with a combined population of 5.9 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The powerful hurricane surged Monday into a monster Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds in the Gulf of Mexico, then lost some steam overnight as it moved over the waters just north of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, falling to 145 mph winds earlier Tuesday. But then it climbed back hitting 165 mph winds in the evening again.

“I know some of our residents that just experienced hurricane damage from Helene are also fatigued,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis during a Tuesday briefing. “Just hang in there and do the right thing. Just let’s get through this. We can do it together, and then on the other side of it, make sure everybody’s safe and and we’ll put the pieces back together.”

He’s set to speak again from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee at 9:30 a.m. Wednesday.

A strike near Tampa Bay could bring devastating storm surge, something the area endured already with Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago with deadly results.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” forecasters said.

The area has not been directly hit by a major hurricane since 1921.

“Hurricane Helene was a water event, and that was devastating for portions of our community, especially those along our waterways, which are 126 miles worth of waterfront property in our community,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said on Tuesday. “Milton has a possibility of bringing close to twice the amount in storm surge, hurricane force, Category 3 or 4 winds and a great deal of rain on our already saturated community. So we can’t ask you in any other way to please be prepared.”

She urged all in evacuation zones to leave now.

“You want to pick a fight with Mother Nature. She’s winning 100% of the time, and individuals that are in these — say you’re in a single-story home — 12 feet is above that house. So if you’re in it, basically, that’s the coffin that you’re in.”

The forecast track has shifted back north toward Tampa Bay since late Tuesday, but may spare Tampa Bay a direct hit.

In Florida, a hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast from Bonita Beach north to the mouth of the Suwannee River including Tampa Bay and on the east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin county line north to Ponte Vedra Beach.

Inland hurricane warnings are in place for parts of the southern Florida peninsula including Central Florida’s Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole, Sumter and Volusia counties.

Hurricane watches are in place for the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, the Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach and on the east coast from north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River and from the St. Lucie/Martin county line to the Palm Beach/Martin county line.

A storm surge warning is in effect for the Gulf coast from Flamingo north to Yankeetown including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay and on Florida’s east coast from the Sebastian Inlet north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia including the St. Johns River.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Lake Okeechobee, the Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach and from north of the mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and on the Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin county line south to Flamingo and north of Ponte Vedra Beach north to the Savannah River, Georgia. It’s also in place for extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

A tropical storm watch is in place for north of the Savannah River to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Updated storm surge predictions now call for 10-15 feet from Egmont Key down to Boca Grande including Tampa Bay in the core projected landfall area.

“We’re talking about storm surge values higher than the ceiling,” said Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie. “Please. If you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they have called for your evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you, to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave.”

Evacuations on much of Florida’s west coast barrier islands have already begun.

“We had situations where people died of drowning in Hurricane Ian. Had they just gone across the bridge from Estero Bay, Sanibel Island and so on, just across the bridge to the first available shelter that had capacity, they’d still be alive today,” he said.

The NHC also warns of surge from 9-13 feet from the Anclote River to Egmont Key, 8-12 feet from Boca Grande to Bonita Beach and Charlotte Harbor, 5-8 feet from Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, 4-7 feet from Aripeka to the Anclote River, 3-5 feet from Chokoloskee to Flamingo and on the east coast from Sebastian Inlet to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, 2-4 feet from Altamaha Sound to Edisto Beach, South Carolina and from Yankeetown to Aripeka, the Dry Tortugas and St. Johns River.

Rainfall predictions also have increased with the NHC expecting 6-12 inches with some areas getting as much as 18 inches across Central Florida and portions of North Florida through Thursday.

“This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding,” the NHC warned.

It’s forecast to continue its turn to the east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday and approach Florida’s Gulf Coast by Wednesday night.

“The storm has moved a little bit slower than initially projected. But remember, do not get wedded to the cone,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis during a Tuesday morning press briefing. “Do not get wedded to where the projected landfall is.

“You could have a wobble either way. And I think one of the things that’s been good is a lot of those folks down in southwest Florida, like in Lee County and in Charlotte, they’re used to seeing the wobble end up going south, and so you’ve had a lot of people that have evacuated from some of those barrier islands.”

The range could be north or south of Tampa Bay.

“Wherever it makes landfall, there’s going to be impacts far beyond what the cone actually shows,” he said.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management has close to 1,000 pre-landfall missions underway such as mobile dams, generators, food, water and tarps.

The state has so far deployed more than 11,000 feet of flood protection systems for critical infrastructure such as hospitals, wastewater treatment facilities and electrical infrastructure, he said.

More than 350 ambulances and another 30 medical transport vehicles are in operation with another 144 staged if needed.

With mass evacuations from the Gulf Coast underway, gas stations have been running out of fuel, but the state has already begun to deploy emergency supplies since Monday night.

The state still has 268,000 gallons of diesel and 110,000 gallons of gasoline, and another 1.2 million gallons of both diesel and gasoline headed to the state. 27 fuel trucks deployed last night escorted by the Florida Highway Patrol, he said.

“Now there is no fuel shortage. Fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida by port, and what we’re doing to bring it in on the ground,” he said. “But lines at gas stations have been long. Gas stations are running out quicker than they otherwise would, and so that is causing the state of Florida to help assist with the mission to be able to get fuel to the gas stations so that Floridians have access.”

DeSantis said he hopes 40,000 linemen will be staged to help support power restoration after landfall.

“As most people know, Hurricane Helene left a lot of damage in some of our neighboring states, and there have been a lot of linemen surged into those states, still working on major power restoration,” he said. “So some of these linemen are coming into Florida from as far away as California.”

That includes major help from co-ops and big companies like FPL, TECO and Duke.

“Everybody has is coming together to do what they can to be ready for this potentially very complicated power restoration mission,” he said.

Debris removal efforts, especially in Pinellas and Manatee counties will continue until it’s no longer safe to do so, he said.

“We want to get as much of the debris picked up as is possible,” he said. “We took all state assets that were available throughout the state, took them off their normal missions, and surged them into these affected areas.”

That includes more than 300 dump trucks taking more than 1,200 truckloads of debris, about 22,000 cubic yards, from those areas within the last 48 hours.

“There was a lot of debris. I’d say we’ve made a huge dent in it,” he said. “But I don’t think that even at our current pace, and even if we continue going through Wednesday morning, maybe even Wednesday at noon, that you’re going to be able to get all of it.”

DeSantis said 8,000 National Guard will be activated before landfall. Already on hard are 34 different search and rescue aircraft.

“We’ve never had this many resources prior to a storm,” he said noting the incoming support from other states. “We’ve had a tremendous response from other states, just like we responded to North Carolina when they needed it. States have come to Florida’s aid, and so I just want to thank the states that have stepped up and helped us, whether it’s a Chinook helicopter, whether it’s some search and rescue personnel, you name it, we’ve had a number of states that have stepped up to help us.”

The state has assisted in the evacuation of 202 healthcare facilities, he said.

“Now is the time where you have the ability to make the decisions necessary to keep yourself and your family safe,” he said. “We urge you to execute your plan. Now. Let’s prepare for the worst, and let’s pray that we get a weakening and hope for the least amount of damage is possible, but we must be prepared for a major, major impact to the west coast of Florida.”

Evacuation efforts have congested highways to the point the state has dropped all tolls in west and Central Florida and Alligator Alley. It has also opened up the shoulders on sections of Interstate 4 and 75, cleared by the state Department of Transportation, to assist in the evacuation.

“Right now, the usage on I-75 is about 90% more than what would typically be happening right now,” DeSantis said on Monday evening. “Just be prepared that there are a lot of people on the roads right now. You’ve got time. … It’s not as if the storm is going to come tonight, but FDOT is doing what they can to ameliorate that and to be able to keep things moving as best as possible.”

“This is not a good situation. It is a very serious situation,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham on Monday afternoon. “We’ve got aircraft, both at NOAA and the hurricane hunters at the Air Force constantly in this storm to get us the latest readings as we track intensification. Things change real quick on us.”

He said he expects the wind field to expand as it approaches the coast.

“I really want to urge everybody, this is really important. I’ve seen this before,” he said. “Even if you have fluctuations in the maximum wind speed, because the winds come down a little bit before landfall, we’re still talking a major hurricane. Expect the wind field to expand. That means more storm surge and more areas that could see the significant wind damage.”

It had rapidly grown from a tropical storm with 50 mph winds Sunday morning to a Category 5 hurricane to 180 mph winds by Monday evening, an increase 130 mph in intensity in just under 36 hours.

Only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007 had more rapid intensification among NHC records.

Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said this is the latest in the calendar year ever for a Category 5 hurricane with at least 175 mph winds on record. He said it was the strongest in the Gulf of Mexico since 2005’s Hurricane Rita.

It’s also only the second October Category 5 hurricane in the satellite era since 1966 he said after 2018’s Hurricane Michael.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced President Biden had authorized FEMA to coordinate all disaster relief efforts in the state and approved 75% federal funding for emergency protective measures including direct federal assistance to 37 counties that were part of DeSantis’ original emergency declaration request, and the same level limited to direct federal assistance to an additional 14 counties. On Tuesday, Biden expanded the emergency declaration to the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

“The president has approved what we asked for. We’re thankful for that,” DeSantis said Monday afternoon. “If there’s something we need that they don’t approve, I will not hesitate to call him. We want to use whatever resources are available to be able to help Floridians prepare and respond to this storm. But everything we’ve asked for from President Biden, he has approved, and we do think we’ll get more approvals for some of the individual assistance and the debris removal after landfall.”

While the intensity may fall just before landfall, the wind shear will be push stronger winds farther east.

“Vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated,” Blake said. “However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.”

The system is expected to lose intensity as it crossed the peninsula, but the projected path has it never losing hurricane strength.

“It isn’t like it’s just going to be a rainstorm,” DeSantis said. “I mean, all the way until it exits the state is going to be powerful so please take the appropriate precautions, listen to your local officials, and we’ll get through this. We’ll respond very quickly, but, but this does have the potential to have a lot of damage.”

The debris leftover from Helene poses a major risk, he said.

His state declaration ordered all landfills and similar sites to be open 24 hours to deal with the massive amounts of debris leftover from Hurricane Helene.

“We had a lot of debris left from Hurricane Helene on Florida’s Gulf Coast that creates a huge hazard if you have a major hurricane hit in that area this week,” he said. “So we’ve marshaled state assets to be able to help with that mission, and we’re going to continue to do that until it’s no longer safe to do so.”

He said just in the last 24 hours, the state in one of the hardest hit areas has removed almost 500 truckloads totaling more than 9,000 cubic yards of debris.

“That’s just from the barrier islands in Pinellas County, bringing to the debris landfills. We have over 200 state assets, dump trucks, other types of trucks and vehicles to be able to do, but keeping it 24/7, is important,” he said.

DeSantis had declared a state of emergency for 51 of the state’s 67 counties, up from 34 declared on Saturday.

The updated list includes Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union, and Volusia counties.

Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Legoland and Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex were among all the theme parks and attractions that will be closed on Wednesday and Thursday.

In Central Florida, UCF and Valencia State College canceled classes Tuesday-Thursday while Rollins canceled classes for the whole week. Orange, Lake, Osceola and Volusia counties had announced closures as well for Wednesday and most on Thursday.

SunRail announced it would shut down beginning Tuesday and remain closed through at least Thursday depending on the storm impact.

Commercial operations at both Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport will cease beginning Wednesday morning, although both airports will remain open for emergency use. Orlando Sanford International Airport also announced Tuesday it would cease operations Wednesday. Daytona Beach International Airport will shut down as of 10 a.m. Wednesday.

“Put your hurricane preparedness plan in place, make sure your gas tanks are filled,” DeSantis said on Sunday. “Make sure you have enough water and nonperishable food to last you as long as the power may be out, clear up loose objects in your yard. Obviously, the big debris piles, you need that to get hauled away. But anything other than that that isn’t debris,” he said.

Impacts on Florida will include storm surge and heavy rains with 5-10 inches and some areas up to 15 inches forecast for portions of the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys through Wednesday night.

“This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding,” the NHC stated.

Much of the state including all of Central Florida remains under a flood watch from Sunday though Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” the NWS advisory states. “Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”

Tampa Bay and the rest of the Gulf Coast of the state just endured major storm surge and wind damage from Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.

In addition, swells generated by the system will begin to hit the southwestern Gulf of Mexico coast today, spreading to the north and east by early next week.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has all of Central Florida under either hurricane warnings and flood watches.

“Residents and visitors should prepare for hurricane force winds, especially in gusts, widespread flooding impacts with flash and river flooding likely near to north of the center where Milton tracks, a few tornadoes, and battering surf and storm surge along portions of the coast,” said NWS meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “Conditions will deteriorate through tonight and linger through Thursday into Thursday night.”

Rain forecasts have now increased with the NHC predicting some areas getting as much as 15 inches on its path.

Sedlock said 6-12 inches can be expected near north of Orlando down to Melbourne with 3-6 inches farther south.

“Rain intensity will quickly diminish Thursday night as Milton moves off of the east Florida coast and departs the area,” Sedlock said. “Withheaviest rainfall generally forecast across northern portions of east central Florida this may lead to considerable flooding impacts along the St. John`s River, with flash flooding likely, especially across the urban I-4 corridor.”

The heavy rainfall in the northern parts of Central Florida could mean considerable flooding impacts along the St. John`s River and across urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas, he said.

A flood warning is already in effect for the St. Johns River near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake counties.

The Space Force’s Space Launch Delta 45 late Saturday put Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Patrick Space Force Base under HURCON 2 predicting surface winds in excess of 58 mph within 24 hours.

“Forecasts show Milton is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane when it arrives in our area,” said SLD 45 public affairs media chief Emre Kelly. “While the anticipated impacts of this storm are not driving a mandatory evacuation, we do expect downed trees, power outages, possible cell service outages, and localized flooding. Evacuation of nonessential personnel and families is voluntary.”

The U.S. Coast Guard has set Port Canaveral’s port condition to “ZULU,” meaning sustained gale-force winds are expected within 12 hours. Vessel movement has stopped, but landside fuel operations continue. Jetty Park is closed until further notice.

The NHC also is keeping track of Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic, that grew back to hurricane strength late Tuesday.

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Leslie was located about 1,015 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of near 80 mph keeping it as a Category 1 hurricane after having diminished to a tropical storm most of Tuesday.

“A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days,” forecasters said. “Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.”

Hurricane-force winds extend out 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 105 miles from its center.

The NHC is also keeping track of two more systems with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

One is a nontropical low pressure system with gale-force winds northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and about 375 miles west-southwest of Bermuda that has become less organized as of the NHC’s 8 a.m. Wednesday tropical outlook.

“Although environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could still form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph,” forecasters said. “Upper-level winds areforecast to become too strong for further development later tonight.”

The NHC gives it a 40% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

The second system is a tropical wave forecast to move off the west coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic by early Thursday.

“Afterward, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cape Verde Islands late Thursday into Friday,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 13 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which grew to major hurricane strength, and four tropical storms.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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