Will Hurricane Milton hit Orlando?

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 9, 2024

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ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane Milton remained a Category 5 hurricane Wednesday with a projected path that could bring it into Tampa Bay, across Central Florida south of Orlando and out through Brevard County.

As of the National Hurricane Center 5 a.m. advisory, Hurricane Milton had 160 mph sustained winds. It was located about 300 miles southwest of Tampa heading northeast in the Gulf of Mexico and targeting Florida.

The NHC’s latest forecast cone shows the system losing just a little strength before and hitting as a Category 4 major hurricane with 130 mph sustained winds and 160 mph gusts on Thursday by 2 a.m. approaching Sarasota south of Tampa Bay, but with a cone that stretches from Charlotte Harbor in the south to near Clearwater Beach to the north.

Here’s the latest forecast track:

The new forecast track has it passing farther south of Orlando across Polk and Osceola counties as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds and 120 mph gusts before heading toward south Brevard County near Melbourne never losing hurricane status as it crosses the state into the Atlantic.

“Milton’s wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida,” forecasters said. “Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.”

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has all of inland Central Florida under a hurricane warning as well as flood watches. Storm surge warning is in place on the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet up into Georgia.

“Residents and visitors should prepare for hurricane force winds, especially in gusts, widespread flooding impacts with flash and river flooding likely near to north of the center where Milton tracks, a few tornadoes, and battering surf and storm surge along portions of the coast,” said NWS meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “Conditions will deteriorate through tonight and linger through Thursday into Thursday night.”

Rain forecasts have now increased with the NHC predicting some areas getting as much as 15 inches on its path.

Sedlock said 6-12 inches can be expected near north of Orlando down to Melbourne with 3-6 inches farther south.

“Rain intensity will quickly diminish Thursday night as Milton moves off of the east Florida coast and departs the area,” Sedlock said. “Withheaviest rainfall generally forecast across northern portions of east central Florida this may lead to considerable flooding impacts along the St. John`s River, with flash flooding likely, especially across the urban I-4 corridor.”

A flood warning is already in effect for the St. Johns River near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake counties.

“Hurricane preparations should be rushed to completion no later than this morning,” Sedlock said Wednesday. “Flooding rainfall and isolated tornado impacts from Milton could begin as early as this morning!”

Another issue from the forecast track will be battered coasts along Brevard and Volusia counties. Hurricane Ian causes severe erosion, heavy surf and coastal flooding especially in Volusia when it hit in a similar manner crossing from west to east.

The Space Force’s Space Launch Delta 45 late Saturday put Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Patrick Space Force Base under HURCON 2 predicting surface winds in excess of 58 mph within 24 hours.

“Forecasts show Milton is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane when it arrives in our area,” said SLD 45 public affairs media chief Emre Kelly. “While the anticipated impacts of this storm are not driving a mandatory evacuation, we do expect downed trees, power outages, possible cell service outages, and localized flooding. Evacuation of nonessential personnel and families is voluntary.”

The U.S. Coast Guard has set Port Canaveral’s port condition to “ZULU,” meaning sustained gale-force winds are expected within 12 hours. Vessel movement has stopped, but landside fuel operations continue. Jetty Park is closed until further notice.

The state suspended all tolls in west Florida, Central Florida and Alligator Alley as of 10:30 a.m. Monday for seven days.

Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Legoland and Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex were among all the theme parks and attractions that will be closed on Wednesday and Thursday.

In Central Florida, UCF and Valencia State College canceled classes Tuesday-Thursday while Rollins canceled classes for the whole week. Lake, Osceola, Orange and Volusia counties announced no canceled classes on Wednesday, some on Thursday already, and some with shortened hours or limited after-school activities Tuesday.

SunRail announced it would shut down beginning Tuesday and remain closed through at least Thursday depending on the storm impact.

Commercial operations at both Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport will cease beginning Wednesday morning, although both airports will remain open for emergency use. Orlando Sanford International Airport also announced Tuesday it would cease operations Wednesday. Daytona Beach International Airport will shut down as of 10 a.m. Wednesday. Melbourne International Airport will be closed by 2 p.m. Wednesday and reopen Friday.

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