Florida keeping an eye on Caribbean system that could become a storm this week

The crowded oceans could spit out another storm this week, right on the heels of Hurricane Helene, and Florida is paying close attention.

The National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances that have good shots at becoming storms this week — but one in the Caribbean is a more immediate system to watch.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the hurricane center gave it a 40% chance of developing in the next seven days and no chance of developing in the next two days, a lower level than earlier in the day.

“A tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” forecasters wrote.

Long-range computer models suggest the system could form in a similar spot to Helene — a Category 4 that flooded tens of thousands of homes in Florida and the southeast last week — and move into the Gulf. From there, some of the models show the Florida peninsula as a possible landing spot, but experts warn it’s far too soon to know for sure.

The models have been less aggressive with this system than they were with Helene, but gradual development is still likely, Michael Lowry, Local 10’s hurricane specialist, wrote in his newsletter Tuesday. A big patch of wind shear could slow down any potential system.

“This means that regardless of development, parts of Florida are likely in for a period of wet weather starting Thursday or Friday and persisting through early next week. Though it’s too soon to know the details of where heavier rainfall could occur, the official forecast for now advertises only modest rain totals over the next 7 days,” he wrote.

The other disturbance the hurricane center is eyeing is in the far east Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure with a 90% chance of strengthening in the next seven days and a 90% chance of strengthening in the next two.

Early computer models took it west for a few days, and it could follow the path of the other storm in front of it — Tropical Storm Kirk — which ended up on a northern track that would keep it far from land. Kirk is also expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane as soon as Thursday.

The next name on the list is Leslie.

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