Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf as hurricane center tracks 2 more systems

The National Hurricane Center on Sunday increased odds for a Gulf of Mexico system to become a tropical depression or storm while chances for two Atlantic systems increased as well.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico had increased showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for additional development,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week.”

If it were to gain enough energy to become a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Francine.

“Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or tonight,” forecasters said.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is slated to investigate the system later Sunday.

The NHC gives it an 90% chance to develop in the next two days and 90% in the next seven.

Conditions in the Atlantic have also begun to favor storm formation for a pair of systems.

In the central tropical Atlantic is an elongated area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms showing more signs of organization.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.

Farther east is a trough of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is expected to move very little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.”

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. It has had five named systems so far, but none that have formed since what became Hurricane Ernesto initially formed back on Aug. 12.

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