Tropical Storm Ernesto drenches Puerto Rico, forecast to be major hurricane near Bermuda

MIAMI — Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday in the Atlantic’s warm waters after drenching Puerto Rico with “torrential rainfall” overnight, forecasters say.

Ernesto is continuing to douse Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with flooding rain early Wednesday as it pulls away and heads north into the Atlantic’s open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ernesto’s center moved over the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and was north of Puerto Rico early Wednesday, the forecast track shows.

The storm is on the cusp of turning into a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Ernesto needs to have maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph to be a Category 1 hurricane.

“While it is possible Ernesto is already a hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade. ... Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the system later this morning,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters expect Ernesto will strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday over the open water as it treks north, with the forecast calling for a Category 2 with maximum sustained winds near 110 by the time it nears Bermuda on Saturday.

“Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.

Where is Ernesto?

The storm was about 125 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, early Wednesday. Tropical storm-force winds extended up to 150 miles from the center with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center’s update at 8 a.m. Wednesday.

Based on Wednesday’s forecast track, Ernesto is not a threat to Florida.

Conditions

Forecasters expect tropical storm conditions will continue for the next several hours over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. More than 500,000 homes and businesses had lost power in Puerto Rico, according to the Weather Channel.

“Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico,” the hurricane center said.

The hurricane center predicts the Virgin Islands will see a total of 4 to 6 inches of rain from Ernesto. Southeastern Puerto Rico is forecast to see a total of 6 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches. Northwestern Puerto Rico is expected to see a total of 2 to inches of rain.

Based on Wednesday’s forecast track the system is not a threat to Florida.

“It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells toward the land area across the western Atlantic,” National Hurricane Center Forecaster Blake wrote early Wednesday. “Even if Ernesto stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week.”

Forecasters say Ernesto’s swells are expected to affect parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas over the next few days.

Ernesto’s swells, which could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are expected to reach the eastern coast of the U.S. later this week and into the weekend.

Watches/Warnings

▪ A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the Virgin Islands. The hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, and the Virgin Islands was discontinued Wednesday morning.

▪ A flood watch remains in effect through at least Thursday morning for parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Parts of Puerto Rico are also under a flash flood warning until at least 2 p.m. Wednesday.