Tropical depression could form by this weekend, National Hurricane Center reports

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are keeping an eye on a “large tropical wave” in the Atlantic Ocean, which has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression over the next seven days.

The center has been following the wave for several days. On Friday, early discussion estimated a 20% chance of formation, and meteorologists put the probability at 40% on Sunday, then boosted the probability to 50% on Monday. Probability pushed up to 60% Tuesday.

“A large tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity,” the center released Wednesday morning. “Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward over the Greater Antilles and towards the Bahamas.”

A tropical depression consists of a cyclone with sustained winds of 38 mph or less, while a tropical storm consists of maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

For now, it is still a “medium” chance the storm will organize over the next week. If formed, the storm would be named Debby.

The center reported that a tropical depression “could form by this weekend” while the system is near the Greater Antilles, Bahamas or near Florida. While some major computer guidance models on Monday had projected the storm system would take aim at Florida or veer westward into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast map shows a slight eastward shift, with the system potentially moving towards Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

“Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” the center reported.

AccuWeather meteorologists are also tracking the wave, writing Wednesday morning in a report that the wave will likely move into an area with fairly low wind shear and ample moisture, allowing some organization and strengthening. If it tracks north of the Greater Antilles, then it will have a better chance to develop, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

“Another player will be a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic pushing the storm to the west, but only for so long. Later this weekend to next week, steering winds should turn the storm to the northwest or north near the U.S.,” the report read. “Because of these conditions, everyone from the northern Caribbean islands to the Bahamas and from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Carolinas will have to watch this tropical feature closely.”