DENVER — Colorado is projected to fall short of its benchmarks for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the next five years, but a new look at progress shows that, like a person trying to lose weight for a class reunion, the state has shaved off a few more pounds than expected even if it won’t shed it all before the deadline.

Colorado’s climate policy team puts out a report every two years that attempts to quantify how much greenhouse gas pollution is being spewed into the air by transportation, electricity generation, the oil and gas industry and other pollution sources. The state released its last greenhouse gas inventory in 2023, and that report showed Colorado falling short of its 2025 and 2030 reduction goals.

On Thursday, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment’s climate policy program and the Colorado Energy Office released a revised report that shows the state is still not on track to achieve reductions, but the gap is smaller than previously reported.

“Colorado has made some really significant progress over the last six years in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and this latest inventory shows that we are closer than we anticipated to achieving our near-term goals of reducing greenhouse gas pollution,” said Will Toor, executive director of the Colorado Energy Office. “There’s a lot of work to do over the next couple of years, but we’re seeing some really good progress based on the work that’s been done to date.”

State climate policy makers presented their report to environmentalists and others on Thursday afternoon. The Denver Post reached out to four organizations that received briefings, but the only person who responded said her group had not had time to study the report and respond to questions.

There were two reasons the forecast changed for Colorado.

First, analysts with the state’s climate policy program found a mistake in historical data collection from the oil and gas industry, so the baseline originally used was incorrect, Toor said. After revising the data, the amount of ground the state needed to cover in that sector shrank.

Second, analysts changed their models for greenhouse gas reductions based on a land use bill passed earlier this year by Colorado’s legislature. A plan to concentrate housing developments closer to jobs and transit stations and other measures should push the state closer to its goals, Toor said.

The greenhouse gas inventory informs Gov. Jared Polis’s greenhouse gas roadmap, which outlines a strategy to reduce the harmful carbon dioxide and methane that form greenhouse gas pollution.

The state’s goals are to limit greenhouse gas emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other contributing pollutants to113.3 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2025 and 76.5 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. The latest projection has the state reaching 117.6 megatons by 2025 and 86.1 megatons by 2030, as long as polluters follow the roadmap’s requirements.

Colorado has made reducing greenhouse gas emissions a priority as elected officials, environmentalists and others strive to reduce climate change, which is causing unprecedented natural disasters at home — such as catastrophic wildfires — and abroad.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions also should benefit Colorado’s Front Range, which is in severe violation of federal air quality standards. The carbon dioxide and methane emissions also contribute to that problem, Toor said.

“Climate change is real and as a state we have made a commitment to do our part to make the changes that are needed in order to stabilize the global climate,” he said.

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