Traders love to hear projections about their investments, whether it’s stocks, cryptocurrency or something else entirely. But crypto traders follow forecasts even more closely than the average investor because crypto prices thrive on optimism. Without increasing levels of optimism, cryptocurrency would be worthless — and literally thousands of crypto coins have substantially no market price.

Here are where some traders are saying crypto prices are going and why these price projections are vital to sustaining the crypto market.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2025

Bitcoin went on a nice run to end 2024, and the presidential election win of crypto-friendly Donald Trump has also helped drive crypto prices higher. Other fundamental issues have helped boost crypto prices. For example, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 helped more money move into the sector by making it much easier and cheaper to buy Bitcoin.

While crypto price projections are always rife with optimism, the climate is encouraging even more bullish estimates. Crypto traders and analysts have come up with any number of price projections for their favorite cryptocurrencies in the coming year:

—Investment manager VanEck projects Bitcoin will rise to $180,000 in 2025.

—Financial giant Charles Schwab predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million if the U.S. establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

—Noted venture capitalist Tim Draper estimates a year-end 2025 price of $250,000 for Bitcoin.

—Standard Chartered projects a $200,000 Bitcoin price target in 2025.

—Analyst Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts Bitcoin will hit $250,000 in 2025.

—Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya suggested Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by October 2025 and tossed out a $1 million projection by 2040.

—But why not go bigger? One analyst at Fidelity Investments projects a $1 billion price target by 2038 or so.

It’s clear there is a massive amount of optimism in the crypto arena right now.

Why cryptocurrency price projections are like trying to guess the number of drops in the ocean

Every single one of these predictions is just an out-and-out guess based on the belief that more money from new investors will flood in and purchase Bitcoin and other cryptos. But isn’t this just the same thing that stock analysts do when they put a target price on a stock? No. Projections of crypto prices differ in a key fundamental way from projections for stock prices.

A stock price can be broken down into two parts: the underlying company’s earnings per share and the multiple that investors are paying for those earnings. Multiply those two numbers and you get the stock price. Earnings are an objective fact, but what investors will pay for those earnings changes depending on factors such as their optimism, whether it’s a bull market or bear market, whether the economy is growing, and so on. Analysts can come up with decent estimates for earnings, but they’re mostly just guessing about what investors will pay for those earnings.

Here’s the key difference with cryptocurrency: Crypto has no earnings nor indeed anything that backs its value. Stocks are backed by the company that issued them, and if the company grows its earnings, the stock will go up over time. In contrast, crypto prices rely exclusively on traders deciding to pay more for the crypto. So anyone who offers a crypto price projection is just pulling a number out of a hat, and that figure is almost always higher than today’s price.

What drives cryptocurrency prices

Cryptocurrency prices are driven only by sentiment, with the notable exception of stablecoins, which are actually backed by hard assets held by a fiduciary. Because of this setup, what crypto traders need more than anything is willing crypto buyers. The way to get them is by spreading optimism about crypto’s prospects and how it’s going to be worth much more in the future.

Crypto prices are fueled exclusively by sentiment, and various crypto traders are trying to juice sentiment by naming ever-higher crypto price targets. Of course, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong history of “up and to the right” price performance for well over a decade now. And yes, of course, plenty of analysts are making good-faith estimates of what Bitcoin and other cryptos will fetch. But it all plays into the euphoria needed to boost crypto prices higher and higher.

While crypto proponents say that Bitcoin’s total fixed issuance of 21 million coins gives the asset value, that’s misleading. There are many things that are much rarer but that don’t have value at all (the glasses in your cupboard, for instance). What makes crypto (or anything) valuable is the demand for it, and that’s why maintaining an extremely optimistic outlook is important. Yes, Bitcoin’s fixed issuance is important, but only in the context of increasing the level of demand.

Bottom line

Traders need to understand where the value of their investment comes from, and with crypto, the value driver is optimism. Because crypto is not backed by anything solid, its price relies entirely on sentiment, which is why prices move so violently when news changes traders’ perceptions.

Editorial Disclaimer: All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into investment strategies before making an investment decision. In addition, investors are advised that past investment product performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

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