Former President Donald Trump has been promising Michigan voters this fall that he can revive the state's auto industry and return it to "greatness," but the Republican nominee failed to fully deliver on similar guarantees, made eight years ago, before his first term in the White House.

On Friday night, Trump told a crowd at Macomb Community College in Warren that if he's elected this fall, he's going to bring back Michigan's auto industry "at levels that have never been seen before." About eight years ago, on Oct. 31, 2016, at the same venue, Trump told another Michigan crowd that he would "bring your jobs back" and, if elected in November 2016, "you won't lose one plant."

Yet, the number of jobs in vehicle and parts manufacturing in Michigan declined during Trump's first term — including before the COVID-19 pandemic hit — according to data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while there were some additional investments made by the industry in Michigan over his four years in office, there were also auto plants that closed in the state, including the General Motors Co. Warren Transmission plant in 2019.

Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions LLC, said more than 22% of U.S. auto production was located in Michigan in 2013, which dropped to 14% in the pandemic year of 2020.

"In order to substantially increase the number of workers in Michigan beyond its current trajectory, jobs would likely come from other U.S. regions," Fiorani told The Detroit News on Monday. "Automotive industry jobs in Canada and Mexico are unlikely to move to the U.S. for various reasons.

"Raising tariffs to bring internationally sourced parts stateside will raise prices of vehicles that are already believed to be too expensive."

With 35 days until the Nov. 5 presidential election, the economy is one of the most important issues in the race, and whether Michigan voters believe Trump's promises could determine whether he wins. Trump has been focused on Michigan's auto industry when he visits the battleground state. He's returning Thursday for an afternoon rally on the campus of Saginaw Valley State University in Saginaw County, home to several auto suppliers.

Trump spoke about the economy in the Grand Rapids suburb of Walker on Friday afternoon before participating in a town hall Friday night in Warren.

"All your car factories are going to be coming back," Trump said inside FALK Production, a manufacturer that makes metal panels, in Walker. "You'll have more jobs than you've ever had in this state. Your car industry will be as big, relatively, as it was 60 years ago, when you were like dominant."

In 1978, there were about 409,000 jobs in the motor vehicle industry in Michigan, more than double the tally in 2024, according to data tracked by federal and state agencies.

The campaign of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has been increasingly highlighting Trump's jobs record from his first term in the White House. In a statement issued Thursday night, Harris labeled Trump "one of the biggest losers of manufacturing in American history."

"He makes empty promise after empty promise to American workers but never delivers," Harris said.

The number of jobs in vehicle and parts manufacturing in Michigan was about 175,000 when Trump took office in January 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It dropped to 171,300 in February 2020, a decrease of 2.2%, before the state reported its first COVID-19 cases in March 2020, leading to Michigan auto plants being shuttered for eight weeks under a public health order from Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

By the end of Trump's term, there were 166,300 jobs in vehicle and parts manufacturing in Michigan, a drop of 5% from when he took office, according to the bureau's data.

The tally has held relatively steady during Democratic President Joe Biden's term. In August, according to preliminary numbers, Michigan had 165,800 jobs in vehicle and parts manufacturing — 500 fewer jobs than at the end of Trump's term.

Asked if the number of auto jobs in Michigan could again reach where it was the 1970s, as Trump is promising, Metro Detroit demographer Kurt Metzger laughed and said "absolutely not."

While Ford Motor Co. and GM are based in Michigan, they've faced increased competition from foreign companies in recent decades and electric vehicle startups like Tesla and Rivian. And there have been more plants built in Southern states, such as Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina.

"There is no way unless (Trump) is going to destroy the automotive industry in the Southeastern United States," Metzger said.

Foreign automakers have found homes in states with a "lower-cost workforce outside of the traditional Midwest base for the industry," Fiorani said.

"Despite the global competition and supplier specialization in the automotive industry, which spread automotive jobs from its historic base, Michigan will remain the focus of the industry for years to come," he added.

'Reverse the decline'

The number of jobs in the auto industry in Michigan is significantly down from decades ago.

In January 1990, 34 years ago, the state had 256,600 jobs in vehicle and part manufacturing, according to the BLS.

So when Trump says the car industry will be as big as it "was 60 years ago," it's unclear exactly what he means — if he's referring to jobs, profits or some other metric — or how he would accomplish the benchmark, given the level of automation in manufacturing and other geographic trends that have taken place.

Michigan state Sen. Jim Runestad, a White Lake Republican and Trump supporter, said he's not sure Trump could get the industry back to the job levels it was at decades ago.

"It's going to be a tough road to hoe to turn it back to what it was in the 1960s and 1970s," Runestad acknowledged. "But you could certainly reverse the decline."

Asked about the auto job numbers from Trump's first term, Runestad said it was unfair to use the tallies as a comparison because the COVID-19 pandemic had led to an economic "meltdown."

Runestad contended that strategic tariffs, reducing energy costs and a slow, methodical approach to electric vehicles, as Trump has touted, could make a positive difference for the industry in Michigan.

Likewise, Sen. Dan Lauwers, R-Brockway Township, said he could see a broader "mobility" industry thrive in Michigan like the auto business once did.

Lauwers, co-chairman of the Michigan Legislative Automotive Caucus, mentioned drones, autonomous vehicles and other innovations. Letting the market determine the future, instead of setting requirements that certain numbers of electric vehicles must be produced, will bring the best results, Lauwers said.

'Hotter than it ever was'

Runestad was in the crowd when Trump spoke at Macomb Community College on Oct. 31, 2016.

During that event, Trump laid out similar auto policies to the ones he's running on this fall. The Republican nominee said he would "unleash" American energy, institute a "consequence" for companies moving jobs out of the U.S. and charge a 35% tariff when businesses try to sell products across the southern border.

"Get ready for your jobs to come pouring back," Trump told the crowd in Michigan in 2016.

"If I am elected, you won't lose one plant," Trump said at another point. "You'll have plants coming into this country. You're going to have jobs again."

During his Michigan campaign stops on Friday, Trump said offering companies lower taxes, lower energy costs and a lower regulatory burden would be key to boosting manufacturing in Michigan. He also said he would impose a tariff of 100% to 200% on cars being made in Mexico and sold in the U.S.

"Michigan will be hotter ... than it ever was in its heyday," Trump said. "It will be hotter than it ever was."

At his town hall Friday night, Trump took a question about immigration from a person named Nico, who said he had been laid off from an auto job in Michigan. Trump touted his tariff plan.

"We're going to employ you," the former president added. "I guarantee."

Trump is making the same guarantees in 2024 about the industry that the Republican failed on during his first term, said Gene Sperling, an economist and adviser to multiple Democratic presidents, including Biden.

“When he had his chance, he completely broke every single promise that he made to the American automobile manufacturing industry,” Sperling said of Trump.

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