Since 2020, the U.S. has seen an explosion in laws targeting transgender youth. Hundreds of bills have sought to restrict which sport teams they can join, which bathrooms they can use and what medical care they can receive — legislation that opponents say creates a climate of fear and intimidation so severe it could lead some trans youth to suicide. Proponents, meanwhile, dismiss those claims as baseless fear-mongering. Some go so far as to suggest their policies are meant to protect kids.

Now, though, we have data. New research published in Nature Human Behavior found that after such bills passed, the rate of suicide attempts increased among transgender youth. Let this be a wake-up call to politicians who cynically seek votes by stoking fears about a marginalized group: Using these kids as political pawns is a dangerous game that is causing real harm.

To figure out how new restrictions affect trans youth, researchers from the suicide prevention nonprofit The Trevor Project tapped into five years of survey responses from more than 61,000 trans and nonbinary young people aged 13 to 24. Their first step was to make sure that there wasn’t a difference in suicide rates among trans youth living in different parts of the country before the new laws were implemented (there wasn’t).

Then they analyzed data on suicide attempts across several years, controlling for a wide range of variables, such as race and ethnicity, the effects of the pandemic, and the introduction of national suicide prevention efforts. Because state transgender laws were implemented at different times, they were able to see if and when those policy changes preceded an increase in suicidality.

What they found is disturbing. Overall, suicide attempts in the 13-to-24 age group rise by as much as 44% by the third year after a law is implemented.

The effect was especially strong and immediate among the youngest kids: Just six months after a law was enacted, suicide attempts among 13- to 17-year-olds were up by 7% compared to the prior year. “That was very surprising,” says Ronita Nath, The Trevor Project’s vice president of research. “I expected to see more of a delayed effect.” During the next two years, suicide attempts among middle and high-schoolers increased by up to 72%.

Given the many proposals for new restrictions, it’s notable that the researchers looked for, but did not find, a correlation between suicidality and the discussion of new state laws — only their enactment. That doesn’t mean the specter of restrictive bills or the rhetoric of their sponsors isn’t harmful to trans youth. It just means that the possibility of a new policy doesn’t push them all the way to attempt suicide.

Nevertheless, the drumbeat of proposals has created significant stress: A different survey by The Trevor Project found that of the very small percentage of transgender youth taking gender-affirming hormones or puberty blockers, 61% were worried about losing access to that care.

Republicans in particular have grabbed at trans issues as a way to gain votes. That has prompted a polarization in attitudes about transgender rights — and has fueled support for new restrictions. For example, one poll found that the number of Americans supporting laws that would criminalize providing gender-affirming care for teens had increased from 28% in 2021 to 43% in 2023.

The partisan fear-mongering is making life more dangerous for transgender people. Recent data from the FBI showed that while crime overall in the U.S. is falling, incidents of hate crimes against LGBTQ+ people rose by 23% in 2023 compared to the prior year, with more than a fifth of the 2,402 cases linked to the victim’s gender identity.

Put it all together, and a disturbing picture emerges of a nation that is increasingly hostile to a tiny sliver of the population.

But tiny is not the same as helpless. Robust studies like this latest one from the Trevor Project dispatch with the notion that these policies aren’t harmful, while plenty of other recent data make clear what seems like common sense: That supporting kids where they are is the best way to preserve their well-being.

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If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide, call the U.S. national hotline at 988.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Lisa Jarvis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering biotech, health care and the pharmaceutical industry. Previously, she was executive editor of Chemical & Engineering News.

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