WASHINGTON — When President Donald Trump suggested that Marc Fogel and the diplomats and lawmakers huddled around him outside the White House should come in from the cold Tuesday night, Fogel shrugged it off with a smile.

"I'm not one bit of cold," the 63-year-old Butler native said. "I came from Russia."

In fact, Fogel — a teacher among the increasing number of American citizens imprisoned in Vladimir Putin's Russia in recent years — kept greeting lawmakers, accepting an Iron City beer from Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio and taking in the moment as a free man outdoors while snow fell on Washington.

Soon afterward in the White House, with an American flag draped around his shoulders, Fogel labeled as "heroes" Trump and the supportive diplomats, lawmakers and family members who kept his name in the spotlight. Though he was sentenced to 14 years of hard labor on a marijuana-related charge, as he stood beside Trump after almost four years in a Russian prison, Fogel even called Putin "very generous and statesmanlike in granting me a pardon."

The dramatic scene, coming less than a month after Trump took office, helped set the stage for ongoing seismic shifts in how the U.S. handles diplomacy and policy on Russia and Ukraine. The countries have been in a brutal territorial conflict after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and Trump has promised to help forge peace.

"There's no question that President Trump and the administration will claim this as a victory — something they were able to do that (former President Joe) Biden was not able to do," said Lew Irwin, who teaches government and politics at Duquesne University. "All Pennsylvanians, all Americans are thrilled that (Fogel's) home. He was unjustly detained for more than three years."

But beyond the reported exchange of a U.S.-held Russian national, it remains to be seen "what assurances, what promises were made to Putin and the Putin regime," Irwin said.

"There are negotiations that happen in the public space, and negotiations that happen behind the scenes."

Democrats and Republicans alike celebrated Fogel's release and applauded Trump and his diplomatic team for their efforts. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., one of many bipartisan lawmakers pressing Fogel's case, commended the administration, calling the release "long overdue."

Trump's critics in the days since, however, say his administration's dealings with Russia and Ukraine amount to capitulation to an autocrat in Putin.

Still, the exchange for Fogel marked the opening phase of a new attempt to broker an end to Russia's war in Ukraine, said Jennifer Murtazashvili, a Russia expert and international affairs professor at the University of Pittsburgh. Over the past three years, the conflict has become the bloodiest in Europe since World War II.

The day after Fogel's release, Trump was on the phone with Putin, discussing negotiations for peace. Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The calls occurred after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters there's no scenario in which the U.S. should support Ukraine entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as part of peace negotiations.

Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., said that while he's been "very critical of Putin for the invasion of Ukraine," there must be "a deal" for peace, adding, "I don't think it's a deal that involves NATO."

The week's developments marked yet another sharp turnaround from the Biden administration, whose policy on any peace deal followed Zelenskyy's conditions: a full withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of all territory claimed by Moscow — including Crimea, which Russia took in 2014 in violation of international law.

One way for Trump to gain domestic support for the policy overhaul is to build a case that his deal-making produces results that leave the U.S. better off — like negotiating the return of an American citizen.

"This is a quick win that looks good for him and looks good for the United States," Murtazashvili said of the Fogel exchange. "Americans are excited to see prisoners come home. These are the public relations moves that the Trump administration hopes can shift momentum on the domestic side if they want there to be negotiations with Russia."

'Desperate for a deal'

Trump has long praised Putin, demanded better financial deals with Ukraine, threatened to pull aid from Ukraine as he pressed Zelenskyy for dirt on Biden in 2019, and consistently urged NATO allies to boost defense spending. Last year, Trump said he'd encourage Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to a NATO ally unless the country "(paid their) bills."

After more than a decade of U.S. refusal to accept Russia's growing encroachment, Trump and his surrogates — including Vice President JD Vance — opened the door during the presidential campaign to a deal that would trade Ukrainian land to end a war the U.S. has supported with military and humanitarian aid.

Last week, while suggesting American military aid to Ukraine could depend on U.S. access to its rare earth minerals, Trump said the country may cut a deal or "they may be Russian someday."

But reversing U.S. policy on Ukraine is more complicated than other moves Trump has made to reshape the government, Murtazashvili said.

"Why did the Trump administration go after USAID, or go after things like DEI? Because they've been very unpopular. So he's gone after the low-hanging fruit in terms of public opinion," she said.

The war in Ukraine is another story.

"The American people have been pretty much on the side of Ukrainian people," Murtazashvili said. "This is one that will be a little more tricky for him."

Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., was among the president's critics this past week, arguing Trump and Hegseth "literally appeared to be negotiating on behalf of Putin" in advance of peace talks.

"He's giving away the house ... before he even puts it on the market," he told CNN. "It's just crazy negotiating tactics, unless you understand that Trump is literally trying to sell us on what Putin wants."

Ned Price, the former State Department spokesman and deputy United Nations ambassador under Biden, said on social media that "Americans have a right to know if the (Fogel) deal also involved Ukraine's sovereignty and security, which Trump's comments and today's Putin call may suggest."

Julia Davis, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, said in a post on X that Russian insiders are now "urging the military to take as much Ukrainian land as possible ... they anticipate being able to keep the spoils and evade the consequences."

Republican Mike Pence, Trump's former vice president, urged Trump to stand up to Russia, arguing that "if Ukraine falls, it will only be a matter of time until Russia invades a NATO ally our troops will be required to defend."

J.J. Balaban, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist, said that while Americans are happy that Fogel is home, it's unclear how much Trump has given up. "It's startling how Trump looks so weak in his relationship with Putin," he said. "That weakness is unappealing to a lot of voters."

But Vince Galko, a Pennsylvania Republican strategist, said efforts to free Fogel "after years languishing in a Russian prison" showed "that the Trump administration is willing to flex U.S. muscle when needed, but also negotiate when it's in our nation's best interest."

"President Trump made Putin blink on this one and that should be a good sign for Ukraine," he said. "When the United States demonstrates strength, the world is a safer and more peaceful place."

Testing ground

Trump and many Republicans sharply criticized the 2022 exchange between WNBA player Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer convicted of terrorism-related charges. Critics argued the Biden administration left behind former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, imprisoned on espionage charges in 2018, and Fogel.

Whelan was later involved in the largest U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange in post-Soviet history, part of a deal last summer with the assistance of the Turkish government involving 24 people and negotiations with several European countries that agreed to release detained Russians. Two other Americans in the exchange were Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.

Biden said his administration had at that point "brought home over 70" wrongfully detained Americans, "many of whom were in captivity since before (he) took office." He pledged to keep fighting to reunite detainees and hostages with their families.

But Fogel, again, was left out of last summer's historic exchange. He had not yet even been declared "wrongfully detained" by the State Department.

That designation, which came in October, indicated the U.S. government viewed him as the equivalent of a political hostage. It also helped ramp up negotiations while providing additional resources, including family coordinators who could provide status and health updates.

The eventual deal for Fogel was a testing ground for how to thaw relations between the U.S. and Russia after more than a decade of escalating antagonism and retaliation that began with the seizure of Crimea, Murtazashvili said.

After Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. led an international effort to isolate the world's largest country and cripple its economy. The U.S. State Department shuttered its consulates throughout Russia and warned Americans not to travel there.

The trip to Moscow last week by Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy who brought Fogel home, was the first known visit of a senior U.S. official in more than three years, The New York Times reported.

"Because there has been such a lack of engagement with Russia — for good reasons — I don't think the two countries really know how to deal with each other right now," Murtazashvili said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News late Tuesday that Fogel's release, Zelenskyy's recently expressed openness to peace and Putin's praise for Trump have "nothing to do with (each) other directly per se."

"But it will in time, because ... we have a strong president," Rubio said.

When he was a senator, Rubio blasted Putin for attempting an "unjustified takeover" of a sovereign, democratic country. Rubio supported aid to Ukraine and often played a leading role in bipartisan legislation punishing Russia for its aggression.

But he's been calling for a peace settlement for several months. Shortly after the election, he told NBC News that while "Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong in their stand against Russia ... ultimately, what we're financing here is a stalemate, and it needs to be brought to an end."

McCormick, who along with Trump promised Fogel's 95-year-old mother, Malphine, last summer to work on his release, called the exchange "a good first step."

"This is something we can all agree on — getting Americans out of the hands of the Russians," he said.

At least nine more Americans remain in Russian custody, according to the Associated Press.

And Fogel, who expressed gratitude to Putin for his release, still has at least one bone to pick with the Kremlin.

After Deluzio handed him a cold one and said, "Welcome home, brother," outside the White House on Tuesday, Fogel said he appreciated a letter the Democratic congressman had written him.

Fogel kept it in a scrapbook that he'd filled over the years with letters from lawmakers, journal entries and a photo of Trump alongside his mother. His captors confiscated the scrapbook almost 5,000 miles away earlier that day.

"I want it back," he said.

_____

(Post-Gazette Assistant Managing Editor Mike Wereschagin contributed to this report.)

_____

© 2025 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.