LOS ANGELES — California is entering the fourth month of what is typically the rainy season, but in the Southland, the landscape is beginning to show signs of drought.

The last time Los Angeles recorded rainfall over a tenth of an inch — the threshold that officials typically consider helpful for thirsty plants and the reduction of wildfire risk — was May 5, when downtown received just 0.13 inches of rain.

"It's safe to say this is [one of] the top 10 driest starts to our rainy season on record," said Ryan Kittell, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard. "Basically, all the plants are as dry as they normally are in October."

California's wet season can run from October to April, although most of the precipitation occurs from December to February.

Current forecasts show little hope that a needed storm could develop in the next few weeks, and the Southern California landscape — ripe for wildfire and never far from chronic water shortages — is paying the price.

Much of the region, including the majority of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties, has fallen into moderate drought conditions, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor map released this week. The last time the Southland saw similarly dry conditions was in early 2023, as the state was exiting a punishing, years-long drought thanks to an exceptional kickoff to the wet season.

Prior to the recent drought report, conditions in Southern California were considered to be "abnormally dry" for the last few weeks. Much of the Central Valley remains in that category.

"Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in expansion of drought in Arizona, California and Nevada," the new report said.

The latest long-range forecasts show Southern California remaining in a below-average rainfall pattern for the entire month of January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. And drier conditions appear to be in store statewide beginning next week through mid-January, marking a shift for Northern California in particular, where the season started with bouts of heavy rain and snow.

"Southern California remains dry," said Michael Anderson, state climatologist for the Department of Water Resources. "We're being watchful right now. The [snowpack] numbers in the Central and Southern Sierra aren't where we want them, and certainly the outlooks are not favoring much growth here in January."

That lack of rain is likely to coincide next week with another offshore wind event in Southern California, Kittell said, which could be potentially damaging.

"Typically we see, at this time of year, close to 4 inches of rain, which would usually be enough to squash any significant fire weather concerns," Kittell said. "But because we haven't had anything close to that, and because we've had a really active two years [of plant growth] ... there's a lot to burn."

He said more red flag warnings are likely to be issued, which were in place in December when the Franklin fire in Malibu broke out, and in November when the Mountain fire tore through southern Ventura County.

The South Coast hydrologic region — which includes more than half the state's population and runs from Ventura south to San Diego — has only seen 10 other water years that began with under an inch of precipitation by January. In most of those years, the region was unable to make up for the slow start, Anderson said. However, four of those years ended up with near- or above-average precipitation totals for the year.

"There is opportunity as we get to January, February, March, to catch up," Anderson said. "One big storm does change the narrative quite quickly."

Dramatic swings have marked previous years. At this point last year, precipitation remained below average until a "miracle March" storm came along and pushed up snowpack and water levels, Anderson said.

"We still have February and February is statistically our wettest month," Kittell said. "There is still good reason to hope we're not going to be dry all winter, but it's certainly a very dry start."

A lot remains to be seen about this rainy season, but even still, officials are hopeful though preparing for the worst. If the Southwest does indeed remain dry this winter, a stronger showing in the North and across the Colorado River Basin, as well as water reserves from prior years, could help make up for some of the challenges that come with drought, particularly since Los Angeles County still imports a majority of its water.

"There's been quite a gradient in the amount of precipitation in California from north to south so far this year," said Andy Reising, the manager for DWR's snow surveys and water supply forecasting unit. Though rainfall remains at essentially zero in the southern third of the state, it's been above average in Northern California thus far, pulling up the statewide average.

The latest snowpack survey on Thursday found the state sits at about 108% of average for this time of year. However, zeroing in on specific regions shows a greater disparity: the northern Sierra snowpack is well ahead of its year-to-date average (161%), while the Central and Southern Sierra are further behind (94% and 75%, respectively).

Major reservoirs across the state are also currently sitting above average, at 122% of the year-to-date median, boosted from two prior wet winters.

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, a wholesale water provider for 19 million people across the region, said it had prepared for a dry season.

"While it is still too early to tell how this water year will shape up, at Metropolitan, we've made investments in storage and long-term planning to reduce our dependence on the amount of water we receive from our imported sources," Deven Upadhyay, MWD's interim general manager, said in a statement Thursday. "We are well-positioned to meet our water demands this year."

But Californians know all too well that droughts can last multiple years — though experts are clear its too early to say whether the state is headed into another extended dry period.

"We do have the benefit of the previous two years being wet, certainly, helping restore some of the water in some of the groundwater systems," Anderson said. "But a dry year like this will add stress."

A swing in weather patterns could still improve conditions in Southern California, Anderson said, or conversely, it could leave Northern California behind for the year. Last year at this time, the snowpack in California was at 28% of its year-to-date average, but ended up above average for the year. In 2022, the opposite happened: snow levels were at 154% in early January, but ending up just below 40% of average by April 1, when snowpack typically peaks.

"We are fortunate to have had several solid snow-producing atmospheric river systems so far this season," Reising said. "But to finish the year where we need to be, we will still need additional snow building at a regular pace throughout the winter."

Even still, California's slopes have swarmed with snowboarders and skiers for weeks — though the conditions from Tahoe to Big Bear are markedly different.

In the San Bernardino Mountains, the dry and slightly warmer weather has meant no fresh, natural powder — though not particularly unusual for this time of year.

"Slow starts are nothing really new in Southern California when it comes to natural snowfall," said Justin Kanton, a spokesperson for Big Bear Mountain Resorts. "It can turn around pretty quickly, and we've seen it."

Though there's no immediate signs for a shift in weather, Kanton said crew and passholders are hopeful things will turn around soon so more lifts and trails can open up.

"We're working with what we got," Kanton said. "Hopefully as we get into the new year … we'll start to see more natural snowfall."

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