Trudeau's crisis puts spotlight on succession rules for Canada's liberals

The turmoil that’s threatening to topple Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has members of his political party poring over the rulebook for replacing him.

Trudeau is under mounting pressure from elected lawmakers in his ruling Liberal Party to leave after nine years in power. Some have warned that if he stays, they face the prospect of a crushing defeat to the Conservative Party in next year’s election.

But there’s no mechanism to force him out quickly, at least outside of a national party convention. For now, the only thing disgruntled members can do is turn up the heat by publicly calling for Trudeau to go — and quietly organize for their preferred replacements.

Trudeau is mulling his future, according to people familiar with the matter. If he decides to fight on, he would be risking months of resistance from disaffected Liberals.

Party infighting would leave the government weakened at a time when the Canadian economy is under a cloud of uncertainty. Donald Trump is entering the White House on Jan. 20 having threatened to put 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods, a move that would severely hurt the country’s export-dependent economy.

Alternatively, Trudeau could choose to step down and ask the party to appoint an interim leader to helm the Liberals into the next election. But that has its own risks: The party would be asking people to vote for it without knowing the identity of the permanent leader.

That’s why, to some Liberals, the most plausible outcome is that Trudeau will announce his resignation and call for an expedited leadership race to pick his successor. Given the specter of Trump, the party would be under pressure to act quickly to stabilize the government.

The winner of that leadership contest would become prime minister, announce a new cabinet — then have to prepare almost immediately for an election.

This option comes with its own set of logistical difficulties, however.

Untested process

Canada’s Liberal MPs have less power to choose or oust their leader than lawmakers in some other countries. Each party has its own rules.

The Liberal Party constitution calls for a vote that’s open to Canadian residents who are registered party members 41 days before the voting day. The format gives an advantage to candidates that can quickly sign up new supporters across the the country.

The party has almost no barriers to membership. There’s no longer even a fee to become a registered Liberal, and practically anyone living in Canada can join as long they’re not a member of another federal party. Trudeau decisively won the last contest in 2013, after hundreds of thousands of people joined. The open-membership policy is likely to be a greater concern this time around, after an official inquiry found evidence of foreign interference in Canadian politics.

The constitution also contains timelines and requirements that will make it challenging to organize a leadership race on short notice, said John O’Leary, a veteran Liberal staffer who worked in the party’s research bureau and on its last two national campaigns.

“The Liberal Party has never tested this current constitution in a leadership race,” said O’Leary, who now works in consulting with Crestview Strategy.

For example, the constitution says leadership contestants must register 90 days before the vote. The party would also need to establish ground rules around fundraising, expenses and other administrative matters.

“There’s a conversation that’s taking place right now, I think, about how quickly could a leadership race be organized and assembled,” he said. “It may take some unique constitutional maneuvering to see something happen more quickly than some of the timelines that are set.”

There’s one section of the constitution that allows the party executive to change the leadership vote date and “alter any arrangements already made,” if necessary, due to unforeseen circumstances. This might allow for an expedited race, O’Leary said, though last-minute changes also open up the party to legal challenges.

Buying time

The problem is the government has a parliamentary sword hanging over its neck. Because the Liberals don’t hold a majority of seats, if all three major opposition parties vote against them on a major measure — such as a budget bill — the government would fall, and an election would start right away.

Last week, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, pledged to vote no-confidence in the government during the next sitting of parliament. Until now, NDP lawmakers have sided with the Liberals on key votes to avoid an election.

Still, the government’s fall is not imminent. Parliament is on its winter break, not scheduled to return until Jan. 27. Even then, the government can use various rules and conventions to delay a confidence vote. Yaroslav Baran, who was a senior staff member in the last Conservative government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has estimated the Liberals might be able to go until late March before facing such a vote.

If needed, Trudeau has another tactic he can use. He could ask the governor general, the monarch’s representative in Canada, to prorogue parliament — essentially a short-term suspension of the legislature — to allow the Liberals time to have an orderly leadership transition.

Trudeau could also attempt to negotiate a new agreement with Singh or with Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet to keep his government alive. But his political capital has never been so low.

If Trudeau and his inner circle ultimately decide a leadership race is too difficult to pull off in such a tight timeframe, he would have to either fight the election with a divided party, or leave and ask Liberals to appoint an interim leader.

The Liberal constitution says a successor would be chosen by the party’s board of directors, in consultation with its elected lawmakers.

In this scenario, the role may fall to Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, a veteran cabinet minister and Trudeau ally who stepped in to replace Chrystia Freeland after she dramatically resigned on Dec. 16. He’s now effectively Trudeau’s No. 2.

However, at least one elected member has publicly backed Freeland, saying she’s “ready to lead immediately.” Before she quit the cabinet, she was also deputy prime minister.

Other members of cabinet who are frequently mentioned as future leadership candidates include Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.