Numerous East Coast states are counting on offshore wind projects to power tens of millions of homes and to help them transition to cleaner energy.

But putting wind turbines at sea requires the cooperation of a powerful landlord: the federal government. Soon, that government will be led by President-elect Donald Trump, who has frequently disparaged offshore wind and said he will “make sure that ends on Day 1.”

In the eight states that have passed legal mandates to reach certain amounts of offshore wind power, Trump’s second term threatens those timelines.

“This is absolutely going to create problems for how we’re going to meet our emissions goals and the energy needs for the state,” said Massachusetts state Sen. Jamie Eldridge, a Democrat who serves as vice chair on the legislative Joint Committee on Environment and Natural Resources.

For many East Coast states that lack a large land base for extensive onshore development, offshore wind in federal ocean waters is central to their plans for a power supply that doesn’t use fossil fuels. Lawmakers in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island and Virginia have established mandates requiring their states to produce certain amounts of offshore wind power in the coming years. Other states have passed laws to allow for offshore wind to be added to their grids or set nonbinding planning targets to prepare for the industry’s development.

State leaders say they will continue to pursue offshore wind but realize there may be delays during the next four years.

In the meantime, some say they will continue to build out the needed electrical grid and ports to get ready for turbines, in hopes of speeding up offshore wind once Trump’s term ends. Others say they may need to consider building more onshore energy projects, including wind and solar, in the next few years to meet near-term climate goals.

“That’s something states will have to take into account,” said Dylan McDowell, executive director with the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators, a collaborative nonpartisan forum for state lawmakers. “Is [offshore wind] still feasible, or do there need to be conversations about solar, [onshore] wind, geothermal, other energy sources that could be put into the mix to help meet those goals? There’s more questions than there are answers right now.”

While a handful of offshore wind projects have already started construction or been completed, many more are in various stages of permitting or awaiting lease auctions held by the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Industry experts say the Trump administration could deny permits, cancel pending leases and halt further auctions. It could also threaten the industry’s financing by denying clean energy tax credits.

In an extreme scenario, the bureau could even side with opponents who have brought legal challenges against projects that already have been approved and retract permits issued under the Biden administration. Trump’s ability to unwind the moves made under President Joe Biden is “underappreciated,” said Timothy Fox, a vice president at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, an independent research firm.

Trump has repeated claims that offshore wind turbines are a major cause of whale mortality — an assertion that scientists say is false. Many of the groups raising concerns about whales to oppose offshore wind are funded by oil and gas donors.

Trump’s transition team did not respond to an interview request before publication.

Offshore wind also has drawn local opposition from coastal residents who fear it will worsen their views and from fishermen who worry projects could block access to key fishing areas. Meanwhile, some Republicans have pointed to the wind industry’s recent financial struggles to argue that it will increase ratepayers’ bills.

“[T]he business model for these projects has fallen well short of projections to the degree that those wind energy developers are either halting construction or asking the government for additional subsidies to make up for projected cost increases,” four Maryland Republican senators wrote to Democratic Gov. Wes Moore in April, unsuccessfully urging him to veto a financing package to boost offshore wind in that state.

Counting on offshore wind

States’ offshore wind goals were already facing difficulties. Numerous projects were canceled or delayed last year as inflation and supply chain issues raised costs dramatically. Now, political headwinds could cause greater delays.

“Offshore wind might not be a viable option over the next four years,” said Fox, the energy analyst. “Unlike a lot of other resources, offshore wind is reliant on a federal review process because these projects are being deployed in federal waters.”

Offshore wind turbines currently provide only a negligible amount of power to the United States. But a handful of projects currently under construction will soon raise that number to 4 gigawatts (1 gigawatt can power about 750,000 homes). And much more is on the way.

Developers of other projects are working to finalize financing or permits, and wind companies are awaiting federal lease auctions that will open up new areas for development. In total, the project pipeline for offshore wind exceeds 80 gigawatts, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory— enough to consistently power more than 60 million homes. The incoming administration could thwart most of that production by denying development permits or leases in federal waters.

East Coast states don’t have a viable way to meet their clean energy goals without that offshore production, said Maryland state Del. Lorig Charkoudian, a Democrat who authored a law last year that increased the state’s offshore wind targets.

“We’ll continue to support the ongoing development of offshore wind until we have to make other adjustments,” she said.

The Maryland law mandates that the state produce 8.5 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2031. Developers of a trio of projects off the state’s coast, totaling 1.7 gigawatts, are working to secure permits and financing, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. And the state is counting on future lease auctions by federal regulators to prompt more development.

Charkoudian acknowledged that Trump could threaten those efforts, but she said the state remains committed to its offshore wind plans. She noted that Maryland is working to improve its electrical grid so that offshore wind projects can “land” their power, an effort that will continue.

“Even if other things do get slowed down, this will make things move faster whenever it can get moving again,” she said.

Nick Guariglia, outreach manager with the New York Offshore Wind Alliance, a network of industry and environmental groups, said that projects take many years to develop, a timeframe exceeding one presidential administration. He also noted that the maturing industry aligns with Trump’s goals of restoring manufacturing jobs and American energy independence. Members of Congress in both parties are seeing economic growth in their districts because of offshore wind, he said.

“This industry has a lot of things to prove about why it’s here to stay,” he said. “Actions are much more important than rhetoric.”

Regardless of what happens at the federal level, offshore wind backers will urge New York lawmakers to continue investing in infrastructure and workforce development to support the buildout of more turbines, he said

Onshore work

Like Maryland and New York, some states may need to focus their efforts for the next few years on developing transmission infrastructure and turbine-ready ports so that projects can hit the ground running once Trump’s term is over, experts say.

“Opportunities exist to prioritize the onshore work necessary to prepare for future leases,” said Alissa Weinman, ocean program manager with the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators, citing the extensive infrastructure needed to support offshore projects.

And for now, states may need to look to other energy sources. In Massachusetts that could, for example, include expanding the installation of solar panels on industrial properties, said Eldridge, the state senator.

Massachusetts law requires the state to produce 5.6 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2035. State Sen. Julian Cyr, a Democrat who has promoted offshore wind in his district in the Cape Cod region, said it remains hard to predict what actions Trump would take.

“But I do expect projects that are still in the permitting process to have at best a slower process, and they may not move forward in this administration,” Cyr said.

In New Jersey, state leaders are working to construct 11 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2040.

“[Trump] is a serious threat to New Jersey’s goals,” said state Sen. Bob Smith, a Democrat who chairs his chamber’s Environment and Energy Committee.

Still, he noted that the country’s rapidly expanding energy needs, driven by data centers and artificial intelligence, could make it difficult for Trump to shut down any new sources of electricity.

“Our economy will not function without that additional generation capacity,” Smith said. “Capitalism always finds a way.”

Like Smith, many state leaders say they’re still in wait-and-see mode.

“If [Trump’s administration] wants to keep us out of the ocean they’ve probably got the tools to do it,” said Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds, a Democrat who chairs the Commerce and Labor Committee there. “We’ll just have to cross that bridge when we get to it.”

Virginia’s law calls for 5.2 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2034.

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