Syria's Assad and Iran face tough choices as rebels advance

Syria-based rebel forces are seeking to build on recent gains and capture more territory controlled by the government, raising the question of whether President Bashar Al-Assad can hold onto power.

There are a lot of unknowns in how the latest twist in Syria’s 15-year conflict will play out, and much depends on the agendas of powerful external actors as much as the internal enmities that have influenced events. For Assad, 59, that means Iran, which considers Syria part of its so-called axis of resistance against Israel and the West and has for years provided the bulk of ground forces, and Russia, an old Cold War-era ally that stepped in to save him in 2015.

A major game changer would be if Russia, which has an airbase in the country, commences a sweeping aerial bombardment against the rebels like it did nine years ago. The difference this time is that Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine.

Assad has ground Syria down with its population struggling with poverty, shortages and power outages. The conflict so far has left between 300,000 to 500,000 dead, more than 7 million internally displaced, at least 6.4 million refugees and caused almost half a trillion dollars of damage, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian NGOs.

Here are some of the key questions:

Is this the end for Assad?

There are no signs Assad is in the mood for compromise. His family has controlled Syria for five decades and he’s held onto power during the civil war. Assad reportedly flew to Moscow after his army’s defenses quickly collapsed in the face of the rebel onslaught, but reappeared in Damascus on Sunday, when he met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“Syria is forging ahead in combatting terrorism with force and resoluteness on the entirety of its territories,” Assad said in a statement. The Syrian army bombed rebel positions in Aleppo and has dispatched reinforcements to the area north of the city of Hama to try to stop the advance.

Could he make concessions?

Before the ongoing rebel offensive, Assad was being pressed by Arab states, Turkey, Western powers and even Moscow to undertake political reforms that would give the opposition a seat at the table, facilitate the return of refugees and stem the flow of drugs to neighboring states.

The president has so far relied on Iran’s unwavering support to resist those demands, which include stopping his country being used as a conduit for arms to be transported to Tehran-backed proxies including Hezbollah. Even if he concedes on some of these points, it’s unclear whether the rebels will come to the table, given how weak the Syrian army and pro-government forces have proven to be.

“This is the inevitable consequence of Assad’s intransigence,” Issam Al-Rayyes, a defected Syrian army officer based outside the country, said of the territorial losses. “He has rebuffed a political solution plus the army and economy are in a pitiful state.”

If Assad falls, who could succeed him?

This is probably the most difficult question to answer. If the rebels reach Damascus and manage to topple Assad, one potential outcome is chaos and the further fragmentation of the country. Regime loyalists led by Assad’s own Alawite sect would likely retreat to their strongholds in and around the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus, creating a leadership vacuum.

The rebels backed by defectors and the political opposition in exile could come up with an alternative power structure to hold the war-ravaged country together. One post-Assad scenario is an interim military council backing a civilian governing body, with both headed by figures acceptable to regime opponents and loyalists.

Who are the rebels?

The main rebel offensive known as Operation Deter Aggression is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda that’s designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and others. It’s believed to have 15,000 fighters and has experience in local governance in parts of northwest Syria that have stayed outside Assad’s control.

Joining HTS are thousands of fighters from the Turkey-backed and funded rebel umbrella group known as the National Liberation Front. The Syrian National Army, another group supported by Turkey, has launched its own operation, mainly in the north against U.S.-backed Kurdish militias.

The most worrisome development for Assad is that thousands of former rebels who had been displaced to the north after the government recaptured territory are picking up arms again and joining the offensive. Rebels in the south of the country, mainly in and around the city of Daraa, are also starting to agitate. HTS appears to have put aside past differences with rival rebel factions and is downplaying its Islamist leanings.

What about Russia?

If Assad is to remain in power, the most important factor is what Russia does next. Moscow has become Syria’s main power broker as the role and influence of the U.S. and its allies in the country diminished.

Russia negotiated with Iran and Turkey to enable Assad to recapture Aleppo and other territories starting in 2016. Given President Vladimir Putin’s more limited resources, he may now either pressure Assad to make major concessions — or abandon him as a bargaining chip in a wider settlement on Ukraine.

That said, Assad remains an important ally and Syria the host of Russian port and military assets, so it’s hard to see Putin washing his hands completely.

How might other foreign powers react?

So far, Iran has shown a determination to do everything to prop up Assad, and there are reports on social media of Tehran-backed Iraqi militias being mobilized in the direction of Syria. The country is crucial territory for the Islamic Republic’s so-called forward defense doctrine, which relies on regional proxies in the confrontation with Israel and the U.S.

The Islamic Republic’s allied militias based in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere helped Assad regain territory after his army collapsed at the onset of the popular uprising in March 2011. However, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which maintains a significant presence in Syria, has been greatly weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict with Israel.

Turkey is the dominant player in northern Syria, and initially opposed the HTS-led offensive, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. But Ankara changed its calculus after Assad refused to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss political reforms and the return of Syrian refugees — Turkey hosts more than 3 million — and the rebel gains, the people said.

Turkey has also been heartened by how the rebels have pushed out U.S.-backed Kurdish militias, considered terrorists by Ankara, from inside Aleppo and the town of Tal-Rifaat without much bloodshed.

How do the U.S. and Israel fit in?

The U.S., meanwhile, has partnered with Syrian Kurds for almost a decade in the fight against Islamic State and maintains 900 soldiers in the country. Arab states, which have forged a rapprochement recently with Assad in the hope he may rely less on Iran and reconcile with the opposition, are along with the Americans adopting a wait-and-see approach in the face of the fast-moving events.

And so is Israel, which significantly stepped up its targeting of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria after the Oct 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated terrorist organizations by the U.S. and others.

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With assistance from Fiona MacDonald and Selcan Hacaoglu.