Japan's PM Ishiba faces vote to keep job ahead of Trump meet

Alastair Gale and Yoshiaki Nohara, Bloomberg News on Nov 10, 2024

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Japan’s parliament is set to elect a prime minister Monday in a mid-afternoon vote that’s likely to keep Shigeru Ishiba in the job despite a national election setback, as the premier prepares for an expected meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump later this month.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament in the Oct. 27 election, but the parties almost certainly have enough votes to reappoint Ishiba as prime minister in a runoff vote due to divisions in the opposition camp.

Barring a major surprise in the election, Ishiba will depart this week to attend a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Peru and then a Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Brazil early next week. Japanese government officials are trying to arrange a meeting for him with Trump toward the end of the trip, potentially during a stopover in the U.S. before Ishiba returns to Japan.

While he is likely to remain prime minister, Ishiba faces an uncertain future because of the coalition’s weakened position after the national election. The LDP and Komeito need backing from some in the opposition to pass major legislation, including an extra budget to fund an economic stimulus package. Ishiba has said the budget will top $85 billion.

The most likely source of support will come from the Democratic Party for the People, a small party relatively close to the LDP on the political spectrum that has enough seats in parliament to help the coalition pass legislation.

The DPP’s potential pivotal role has turned its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, into a kingmaker. Tamaki is using that leverage to press for his primary policy goal of raising the ceiling of tax-free incomes. Talks are ongoing between the LDP and DPP over the proposal.

Tamaki’s position at the head of the party was thrown into doubt Monday morning after a report alleging marital infidelity in a local magazine. At a press briefing, Tamaki said the report was largely true. DPP Secretary General Kazuya Shimba said he will still vote for Tamaki in the vote for prime minister as planned.

The remaining opposition parties have all said they will vote for their own leaders in Monday’s election. If no candidate secures a majority, as expected, the two candidates with the most votes will compete in a run-off.

With the opposition failing to coalesce around an alternative leader, Ishiba is all but guaranteed to secure the plurality needed to prevail in a runoff vote.

Following the vote, Ishiba is expected to name some new cabinet members as he seeks to re-set his administration just six weeks after he made the surprise leap from LDP party sidelines to become national leader.

Still, his failed gamble of calling a snap election doesn’t bode well for his longevity as prime minister.

Concessions that Ishiba will have to make to opposition parties to manage a minority government could lead to calls to replace him within the LDP, said Masaki Taniguchi, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo. The LDP faces another national election next July for the upper house of parliament, and some analysts see the passage of the national budget next spring as a potential watershed moment that could lead to a change at the top.

“It’s possible that there will be calls within the LDP for a change of prime minister after the annual budget proposal is approved,” Taniguchi said.

The return of Trump as U.S. president also raises the stakes for Ishiba. Japan navigated the first Trump presidency relatively well, in part thanks to the close ties between the U.S. leader and late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The leaders bonded over games of golf.

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in June, Trump spoke warmly about Abe but renewed his criticism of the yen’s weakness against the dollar and the advantage it gives Japanese companies such as automakers.

Trump has also called for Japan to pay more for the U.S. military presence of around 55,000 troops, the largest permanent foreign deployment of American forces. The current deal is up for renewal in 2026.

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(With assistance from Yuko Takeo.)