Hurricane damage effects on Florida election turnout unclear

TAMPA, Fla. — In Tampa Bay, Election Day is arriving less than four weeks after Hurricane Milton, the second storm of a historic one-two punch, leaving uncertainty about the natural disasters’ impact on voting.

But local officials have made accommodations, and many are hopeful the storms will not cause an enormous effect.

Historically, some fall hurricanes have caused significant disruptions, impacting registration activities, voters’ attitudes and turnout on Election Day.

In 2018, for example, people in North Florida counties most damaged by Hurricane Michael were 7% less likely to vote than their neighbors, a published study found.

There were also fewer new voter registrations there than in the rest of the state, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.

That storm preceded a midterm, but research has also found turnout in the 2012 general election was lower in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy.

This year, the deadline to register to vote in Florida was Oct. 7. At that time, Floridians were simultaneously scrambling to recover from Hurricane Helene and to prepare for Milton, which arrived two days later.

So far, early voting turnout numbers in the state have not concerned election observers. In some counties, enthusiasm among voters has remained steady or increased. While mail ballots were initially delayed following weather-related USPS disruptions, they were delivered once they were back online, local supervisors of elections said.

By Monday morning, 8.2 million Floridians had cast early and mail ballots; however, final turnout will be unknown until polls close.

Apples-to-apples comparisons to 2020, when 11 million voted, are so far impossible, as the coronavirus pandemic upended voting behavior that year.

Across Pinellas, Sarasota, Hillsborough, Pasco and Lee, nearly 50 precincts have had their polling locations changed due to hurricane damage and effects.

Twenty-five are in Pinellas. The furthest distance from an old polling station to a new one is 12 minutes by car without traffic, according to Google Maps. The further a voter has to travel to vote, the less likely they are to do so, research shows.

Supervisors have forwarded mail ballots to people at new addresses who may have had to relocate after the storms. They said they had not tracked return rates on those specific ballots.

In Pinellas County, the center of Helene’s flood damage, officials hesitated to hypothesize on impacts but noted some drop in ballots so far.

“It might be because of the hurricane. It could be because of political spending, but we’re not in any position to speculate on that,” said Dustin Chase, spokesperson for the Supervisor of Elections Office.

In Manatee County, Supervisor of Elections James Satcher said turnout in some of the precincts that were the hardest hit is within two to three percentage points of the overall county rate.

In Sarasota County, officials have seen few impacts, said Paul Donnelly, a spokesperson for the elections office elections.

Tampa 37-year-old Crystal Azan, a resident of Palmetto Beach, said flooding inside her home during the storms reached about 4 feet high. Azan is still living in her damaged home and said the hurricanes prompted her to ensure she was ready to vote as soon as it was possible.

Thinking the line would be long, she got to the Fred B. Karl County Center in downtown Tampa about an hour after it opened on Oct. 21, the first day and brought snacks. To her surprise, she said, she walked right in, got her ballot and was ready to cast it with ease.

“I’m highly impressed with the work the county and city has done,” she said.

Michael T. Morley, an election law professor at Florida State University, said some voters in the areas that were hardest hit by the two hurricanes will certainly face substantial challenges being able to participate.

“There’s some people who have been affected so much that, despite the state’s efforts, despite the emergency measures that were implemented, may either find it too difficult to vote, impossible to vote, or, frankly, just have higher priorities on their mind right now: rebuilding their own lives,” Morley said.

In Taylor County, where Helene made landfall, officials replaced one beachside polling location with a mobile unit on the same grounds, so that voters could use the same address to get there.

“Even with all the devastation across our county from the hurricanes, our voters are eager to cast their ballot,” said Dana Southerland, Taylor County Supervisor of Elections.

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