A hurricane could enter the Gulf of Mexico this week after striking Cuba as Category 1

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Nov 4, 2024

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MIAMI — A hurricane could enter the Gulf of Mexico as soon as Wednesday, after striking western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The outer bands could sweep the Florida Keys and send some rain over the Florida peninsula later in the week.

As of the 7 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, potential tropical cyclone 18 was on track to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael — the 17th named storm of the season — as soon as Monday morning.

From there, the forecast takes soon-to-be Rafael past Jamaica, which remains under a tropical storm warning, and the Caymans, which remain under a hurricane warning, on Tuesday.

This area of the Caribbean is still toasty warm, and forecasters say that the hot waters and low wind shear could help the storm strengthen up to a Category 1 hurricane as soon as Wednesday, or even higher.

Morning surveys of the system found it still disorganized with no well-defined center, but Hurricane Hunter planes are taking another look at the potential tropical cyclone later Monday morning.

While forecasters say they’re more confident the system will steer clear of Florida — thanks to a high-pressure system near and to the east of the peninsula — the weather patterns steering the storm once it’s in the Gulf are a little harder to predict. The latest forecast takes Tropical Storm Rafael closer to Louisiana for a potential landfall.

“It should be noted that, given the uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,” forecasters wrote in the 4 a.m. Monday update.

However, they noted, the Gulf of Mexico has finally started to cool off. And the competing weather patterns have brought some storm-shredding wind shear and dry air to the area, which is likely to limit Rafael’s strengthening.

Other systems to watch

The hurricane center is also watching a tropical disturbance that could form north of Cuba and Haiti in the next week. As of 7 a.m., forecasters gave it a 20% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next seven days and no chance of developing in the next two days.

Forecasters said it could move generally west over the Atlantic in the next few days.

In the far northeast of the Atlantic, so far it’s almost off the map, the hurricane center is also tracking Tropical Storm Patty. The short-lived storm is set to dissipate Tuesday morning off the coast of Portugal.