A Supreme Court review of the controversial effort to overhaul Mexico’s judiciary is set to intensify a battle between justices and the ruling Morena party, threatening to push the nation to the brink of an institutional crisis.

On Tuesday, the top court is scheduled to weigh a draft ruling from Justice Juan Luis Gonzalez Alcantara that upholds the legality of popular elections for Supreme Court members — one of the key aims of the judicial reform lawmakers approved in September. But the proposal would drastically limit the reform’s scope by declaring unconstitutional the speedy election of the country’s federal judges, many of whom are set to face a vote next year.

Eight of the court’s 11 justices, including Gonzalez Alcantara, have pledged to resign rather than run in the elections, fueling expectations that they will vote in favor of the ruling. But whether they will get that opportunity remains unclear, after Morena used its congressional majorities to approve a new law curbing the Supreme Court’s powers last week.

Morena’s judicial reform efforts have already rattled investors and allies like the U.S., generating deep fears that the dominant party started by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is seeking to erode any remaining checks on its power. Now the court case appears poised to set up a high-stakes decision for Lopez Obrador’s chosen successor, new President Claudia Sheinbaum, who many analysts expect to press forward with elections no matter what the court decides.

“In a normal state of democracy with a working system of balance of powers, the executive and legislative branches are obliged to comply with the ruling,” said Claudia Aguilar Barroso, professor of constitutional law at the Escuela Libre de Derecho in Mexico City. But Sheinbaum and Morena’s lower house leader, Ricardo Monreal, she added, “have already given hints that they will ignore it.”

Gonzalez Alcantara’s draft ruling lends credence to many of the arguments critics of the overhaul have leveled. By setting a first batch of judicial elections for mid-2025 — before the terms of many current judges end — Mexico’s congress violated the independence of the federal judiciary and the constitutional separation of powers, it states.

Federal judges, he wrote, should remain in their posts for their full term and “can only be removed through disciplinary or criminal” procedures that are “clearly established in advance.”

But Morena, which has become an overwhelming political force in recent years and now commands power at nearly every level of Mexican government, has ramped up its offensive against the top court as the legal challenges to its coveted reforms mount.

On Wednesday, lawmakers approved an amendment that curbs justices’ ability to review the constitutionality of such reforms, deepening concerns that Morena is targeting limits on its power and eroding Mexican democracy.

Congress also approved a list of five people who will form part of a committee that will evaluate candidates for next year’s vote, along with other nominees put forward by the judicial and executive branches, the latest signal that Morena plans to press forward with the votes even if the top court rules against it.

Sheinbaum, meanwhile, has turned charges of overreach back on the justices, accusing Gonzalez Alcantara and his colleagues of trying to rewrite laws congress passed and thus violating the will of the Mexican people. The president and her party say the reform is necessary to root out judicial corruption.

“The issue is that people say, ‘The president is authoritarian and anti-democratic,’” Sheinbaum said during a Wednesday press briefing. “But what Minister Alcantara’s proposal says is, ‘I’ll give you a new proposal for the constitution to reform the judicial branch.’”

“Who’s authoritarian now?” she asked.

It remains uncertain how the new amendment will immediately affect the case. But after a majority of state legislatures approved it Thursday, Senate President Gerardo Fernandez Norona said he would ask justices to dismiss any legal actions seeking to annul the judicial reform and other constitutional changes.

Not all Supreme Court members are on board with the idea that it can block the reforms even if it does hold the Tuesday hearing as planned.

Justice Lenia Batres, a Lopez Obrador appointee and one of the few current members who intends to run in the elections, told Bloomberg News that while political parties can challenge laws — including those pertaining to elections — they don’t have the ability to contest “constitutional material.”

But already, Gonzalez Alcantara has begun warning that a refusal to comply with Supreme Court orders would carry dire consequences for democracy in Latin America’s second-largest economy.

“If they don’t listen to us, we’ll understand that the constitutional order has been broken,” he said in a local radio interview Thursday. “The state of law would be questioned by a significant portion of the population. That would have implications within the country and outside of it.”

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(With assistance from Michael O'Boyle.)

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