Subtropical Storm Patty forms; odds increase for tropical depression to form in Caribbean

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A tropical depression is likely to form in the Caribbean Sea as soon as this weekend, while Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the Atlantic Saturday.

A broad area of low pressure is forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is increasingly likely to become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week as it drifts northward or northwestward in the central or western Caribbean, forecasters said. It had a 80% chance of forming in the next seven days and a 70% chance of forming in two days, as of 2 p.m. Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Storms in the Caribbean usually move to the north or northeast in November. This means that residents and visitors from Florida (including the Gulf Coast) to the Carolinas will have to keep a close eye on development,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “Even if a tropical storm forms and tracks into Mexico or Central America, changing steering winds can turn that storm to the northeast and toward Florida later on.”

The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Thursday morning the system could gradually develop “and uncertainty follows” as it is too early to know any details.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico is producing cloudiness and showers. Slow development is possible over the next two to three days as it moves west-northwestward, after which it is expected to be absorbed by the low pressure area over the Caribbean. It has a 10% chance of forming in the next two to seven days as of 2 p.m. Saturday.

“Heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas,” forecasters said.

Finally, Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the North Atlantic Saturday. As of 2 p.m., Patty was located about 225 miles west of the Azores, moving southeast at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of the Azores.

The next storm to form would be Rafael.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.