Russia speeds up advance in Ukraine as mood darkens in Kyiv

Russia’s army is gaining speed in its advance in eastern Ukraine, seizing more land last week than at any point this year, increasing pressure on Kyiv’s U.S. and European allies to bolster its defenses.

The gain of more than 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) adds to territory taken in a grinding summer offensive that’s involved huge losses of Russian troops and equipment.

Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence calculations based on changes recorded by the DeepState map service that’s maintained in cooperation with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

The outcome of next week’s U.S. election may mean Kyiv is forced to accept peace under unfavorable conditions or face the prospect of continuing the fight against Russia on its own, according to two people close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive. There’s a deepening sense of despondency among officials about the course of the war, one of the people said.

That mood is starting to be shared more broadly in Ukraine, as the struggle and sacrifice of holding off Russia’s invasion for nearly 1,000 days takes its toll on a war-weary population. More than two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it’s time to start peace talks with Russia, according to a September survey of 2,016 people by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Centre, an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year.

The Russian advance remains incremental and is far from controlling all of the territory in four eastern regions of Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin has illegally declared to be part of his country. Still, Putin is pressing his advantage on the battlefield with the U.S. consumed by the presidential election race and allies in Europe nervously contemplating a victory for Donald Trump. The Republican Party contender has said he’d quickly bring the war to an end and has expressed skepticism about continued Western support for Ukraine’s defense.

Zelenskyy told journalists Tuesday that his forces have received only 10% of a $61 billion U.S. aid package pledged in April, blaming delays on bureaucracy and logistics. He has repeatedly asked the U.S., so far without success, to provide long-range weapons so Ukraine can strike military targets in Russia.

NATO allies are indecisive in providing additional support for Ukraine, fearful of escalating the confrontation with Russia, according to two western officials familiar with the situation. Allies see no sign Russia is interested in negotiations to end the war, they said, asking not to be identified discussing internal deliberations.

That’s as Ukrainian forces continue to occupy territory in Russia’s Kursk region. The surprise incursion in August was partly intended to relieve pressure in eastern Ukraine by compelling Moscow to redeploy some troops. So far, Russia has shown no sign of being distracted.

Russian troops took over the town of Selydove this week, with the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove among their next targets. Both are important logistical hubs for Ukraine’s defense in the Donetsk region. Should the cities fall into Putin’s hands, it would become another milestone on his path toward taking Ukraine’s entire industrial east.

Ukrainian troops are gradually losing ground in the Kursk region, as Russia ramps up attacks. Thousands of North Korean troops have arrived in the region and may soon join up with Russian forces on the battlefield, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

Ukraine is now politically committed to maintaining its presence in Kursk, which means more troops will likely have to be sent there, even as lack of manpower is its biggest overall weakness, said Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based defense analyst.

“You may have very well-developed and fortified defensive lines but if you don’t have troops to man them then they have no utility,” he said.

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“Russian territorial gains in the past three months are likely the result of Russian troops’ numerical superiority and their dominance in artillery use, due to much greater availability of shells compared to Ukrainian forces. Yet these localized Russian successes don’t indicate a turn in the war, which remains a war of attrition.” Alex Kokcharov, Geoeconomics Analyst for Russia and Eastern Europe.

Legislation that took effect in May lowered the wartime conscription age in Ukraine to 25 from 27 and required men to register for potentially being drafted. But mobilization has stirred tensions among the population as Ukraine seeks to expand its army that’s still outnumbered by Russian forces.

Ukraine intends to mobilize more than 160,000 people under its conscription plan, National Security & Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko told lawmakers Tuesday. More than 1 million have already been drafted, he said.

Russia, too, faces challenges in sustaining its war effort that involves throwing waves of troops at defensive positions in Ukraine, incurring casualties that the U.S. this week put at 1,200 per day. Russia has rejected such estimates, while not disclosing data on its losses.

The Kremlin is unwilling to order another mobilization, fearful of stoking a repeat of the domestic tensions over the war that followed the call-up of 300,000 reservists in September 2022. It has relied instead on offering ever-larger recruitment bonuses to persuade Russians to sign army contracts to fight in Ukraine.

Putin has turned to Iran for drones, and to North Korea for missiles and millions of artillery shells to supply his army in Ukraine. Russia’s defense industry is straining to increase production further in the overheated economy.

Russia currently doesn’t seem to have the strategic resources to develop its tactical battlefield gains for a decisive breakthrough in the war, said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “The chances of either side achieving a breakthrough are very low,” he said.

Russia may take full control of Ukraine’s east by next summer if the current pace of advance is maintained, according to Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin. Some in Moscow hope Putin will be ready to open peace talks once Russian troops reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region, he said.

There’s no sign so far that Ukrainian defenses are breaking down, according to Evgeny Buzhinsky, a former top Russian Defense Ministry official.

“There are no massive surrenders and chaotic retreats. Ukrainians keep fighting,” he said. “There is always a breaking point, we just haven’t reached it yet. But we will.”

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(With assistance from Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Olesia Safronova, Volodymyr Verbianyi and Andrea Palasciano.)