LOS ANGELES — For decades, the California State University system focused on graduation rates as the top marker of student success, in line with most of its fellow higher education institutions.

But CSU — often called "the People's University" — is poised for a major reset as it changes its ultimate goalpost from a four-year degree to a good job. As more students and families question the value of a college pedigree, the nation's largest four-year university system plans to boost efforts to link higher education with clear employment payoffs, offering more intentional advising on how to choose a career path of interest, select the right major for it and network with alumni and others to help land related internships and jobs.

"We have to show students what's the end game," CSU Chancellor Mildred García said in an interview this week. "It's not graduation. It's how do we connect graduation to either a career that they're studying or graduate school and help them get to that? That's what families want, right? Return on investment."

García said the changing nature of the system's 460,000 students — 54% of them Latino, Black, American Indian and Alaska Native, historically underrepresented groups — requires the 23 campuses to be more intentional about career guidance. Many students, especially those who are the first in their families to attend college, may not have the social connections to build resumes enhanced by internships, summer fellowships and other experiences that help launch careers after graduation, she said.

García spoke about the pivot as CSU released new data Tuesday on progress toward its 10-year goal to increase graduation rates for all students and eliminate racial and ethnic achievement gaps. The findings — which show the system falling short in some areas despite improvements — will be discussed this week at a three-day CSU symposium on the Graduation 2025 initiative and the shift toward an expanded view of student success.

The initiative set out to increase four-year graduation rates for first-time students from 19% in 2015 to 40% in 2025 and six-year rates from 57% to 70% during that same period. For transfer students, the goal is raising two-year graduation rates from 31% to 45% between 2015 and 2025 and four-year rates from 73% to 85% during that same period.

The new 2023-24 data show uneven progress and raises questions as to whether CSU can hit the end target next year. Four-year graduation rates for first-time students rose to 36.1% from 35% last year, 3.9% short of goal. Six-year rates stayed steady at 62%,8% short of goal.

For transfer students, two-year rates increased to 44.2% from 41% last year, less than a point short. Four-year graduation rates for transfer students are struggling, and fell to 75.6% from 79% last year.

The proportion of students who dropped out has remained stagnant at 30%, CSU reported.

"Thank God we are making progress ... but we still have a lot of work to do," García said. "I think we have to be honest that this ... doesn't happen overnight, and we have to do everything we can to get our students to get to the finish line."

Pandemic, inflation a blow to students

Dilcie Perez, CSU deputy vice chancellor for academic and student affairs, said she remained optimistic that more progress can be made by next year. The pandemic was a key barrier to greater success, she said, forcing some students to leave school for health reasons, family responsibilities and financial difficulties. Those challenges have remained for some students, as inflation has boosted living costs and hit family budgets, she said.

Even so, the data show some bright spots, including a near doubling of the four-year graduation rates for first-time students since 2015.

Perez said some campuses have started "early support" programs, monitoring the grades and attendance of students to intervene with help for those who begin showing signs of struggle. Another program, Second Start, involves outreach to those who have dropped out to help them restart their studies.

Cal State Los Angeles, for instance, has started using Graduate365, a new tool that helps the campus identify first-year students who did not reenroll, allowing outreach efforts to them. Cal State Monterey Bay is engaging students through a new program with the Pebble Beach Co. that provides opportunities to study and work in the hospitality industry while earning money and credits toward their degree and a full-time job upon graduation.

"I still think we have an opportunity to make a difference," Perez said.

As the 10-year graduation initiative nears its end, CSU has launched an unprecedented outreach effort to survey more than 1 million faculty, staff, students, alumni and others on how to reimagine student success. University officials are culling the data gathered and holding sessions with participants to begin crafting the new direction.

Questioning the value of college

García — who previously served as president of Cal State Dominguez Hills and Cal State Fullerton — said she wanted to focus on post-graduate career success. She said she witnessed growing skepticism about the value of a college degree nationwide while serving as president of the 350-member American Assn. of State Colleges and Universities in Washington, D.C., before returning last fall to take the CSU helm and felt it should be addressed — especially for the university's first-generation and underrepresented students who may come in with "limited knowledge" of the vast careers available to them.

About 30% of CSU students are first-generation. And nearly 50% are Latino — a huge shift from the 24% in 2007, when García stepped in to head Dominguez Hills.

While the work to more intentionally link higher education and post-graduate jobs is just beginning, García said it is crucial for not only students but also for cities, the state and nation which will need the health professionals, teachers, businesspeople and other educated workers to keep the economy vital and strong.

"We have the talent," García said. "We have to make sure that we understand that public higher education is an investment."

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