Spending panel shake-up likely in Senate post-elections

WASHINGTON — Senate appropriators are facing what could be a major shake-up in subcommittee leadership after the upcoming elections, particularly in control over the largest slice of annual discretionary spending: defense.

Current Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Jon Tester, D-Mont., is in a perilous position in his reelection race against Republican Tim Sheehy, a Navy veteran and founder of an aerial firefighting company. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Tilt Republican.

The Republican side on the panel could also be facing a major change. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is leaving his current role and returning to a leadership position on the Appropriations Committee, where he’s currently the longest-serving panel member outside of Patty Murray, D-Wash., the current full committee chair. Murray and McConnell each joined Appropriations in 1993.

McConnell is in line to take over a key role on the committee, potentially leading the Defense subcommittee which full committee ranking member Susan Collins, R-Maine, controls now. McConnell hasn’t commented on his plans, though various sources believe this is currently the leading scenario.

A pair of other senior appropriators — Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis. and Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member Deb Fischer, R-Neb. — are also in competitive races with major implications for the spending panel.

Defense

Montana voted for then-President Donald Trump 57% to 41% in 2020, leaving Tester a steep hill to climb to overcome the top of his ticket in the red state.

If Tester were to lose his reelection bid, Hawaii’s Brian Schatz would be next in line to be the top Democrat on the Defense panel. Democrats in both chambers base their subcommittee leadership in part on subcommittee seniority.

Schatz’ home state of Hawaii is home to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which oversees the nation’s military footprint in the Pacific. Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickman is a partnership between the Navy and Air Force, and Hawaii’s shipyards play a key role in Navy maintenance.

While Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., is ahead of Schatz in seniority, conference rules bar those who are the top Democrats on “A” committees from also leading Appropriations subcommittees if a more junior member wants the gavel. Reed is chairman of the Armed Services Committee.

Republicans don’t have the same rule, and the top full committee Republican often also helms the Defense panel, as Collins currently does.

McConnell’s return will complicate matters for Senate Republican appropriators. Since the outgoing leader has the seniority edge, he could take over full committee leadership from Collins, though he’s not expected to do so.

However, McConnell is expected to take over a major subcommittee, with Defense most likely, appropriations watchers believe. A longtime advocate for higher defense spending and a robust presence on the world stage, McConnell could relish the influential role. He’s played a larger-than-usual role this year advocating for a larger military budget in light of challenges posed by China and other global rivals, as well as robust aid to Ukraine which also pads out the U.S. defense industrial base.

In a similar vein, McConnell could opt to lead the State-Foreign Operations panel. That would bump South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham and have deeper ramifications for the committee’s Republicans, leading to a larger shuffle of appropriators. McConnell was the top Republican on State-Foreign Operations and its predecessor Foreign Operations, before it absorbed the State Department, from 1993 until 2007 when he assumed the role of Senate GOP leader.∲

Labor-HHS-Education

Baldwin is believed to have a slight advantage in her reelection campaign against Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessman who is partially self-funding his campaign. That race is rated Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections, and Wisconsin is one of the seven states considered a Toss-Up in the presidential contest between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

If Baldwin loses, Democratic leadership on the largest nondefense appropriations bill would open up. Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley appears next in line for the slot, under Democratic rules.

Merkley is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, and one of its biggest environmentalists. He currently leads the Interior-Environment spending panel, though the Labor-HHS-Education panel would give him a bigger opportunity to push progressive priorities.

It’s not clear who would step up to fill the Interior-Environment role if Merkley leaves, though Financial Services Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., would be next in line.

Military Construction-VA

Senate Democrats will also need a new leader for the Military Construction-VA spending panel, with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., not seeking reelection.

Sinema, a former Democrat who continued to receive committee assignments from her old party, joined Appropriations following the death of California’s Dianne Feinstein. She’s run the Military Construction-VA panel since April, overseeing the subcommittee during the late-starting fiscal 2025 process.

It’s not clear who would take over the subcommittee, as every member currently on it either has another subcommittee they would likely stick with or chair an “A” level full committee.

This would pave the way for an appropriations rookie to potentially step into the job, as another former Democrat, Sen. Joe Manchin III, I-W.Va., is retiring and leaving the subcommittee.

Legislative Branch

Fischer is engaged in one of the more unconventional races this cycle, where she is facing independent Dan Osborn, a former union leader. Her race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections.

If Fischer were upset in her red state, the smallest subcommittee role would open up. Florida’s Marco Rubio could pick up the role if he wants it, or a new Republican on the committee could step in.

Transportation-HUD

If Tester loses and Schatz takes his slot, the Hawaii Democrat would have to give up another plum position running point for his party on the Transportation-HUD panel, another hefty pot of domestic funds and the most popular place to go for earmarks.

That would set off a chain reaction affecting various other subcommittees, with many possible permutations. State-Foreign Operations Subcommittee Chair Chris Coons could take it if he wanted it, though the Delaware Democrat is thought to enjoy his current role — or alternatively, he’s considered to be in the mix for secretary of State under a possible Harris administration.

Aside from Coons, the Transportation-HUD slot could go to Homeland Security Subcommittee Chair Christopher S. Murphy, D-Conn., or Van Hollen based on seniority. And continuing down the rabbit hole: either of those two foreign-policy experts could potentially assume Coons’ current role.

Commerce-Justice-Science

The “A” committee conference rule could impact Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s chances of remaining top Democrat on Commerce-Justice-Science.

The New Hampshire Democrat is expected to take over Senate Foreign Relations now that Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin, D-Md., is retiring, so if another panel member who is not a full committee chair somewhere else wants Shaheen’s slot on “C-J-S,” she would have to give it up.