ORLANDO — The National Hurricane Center lowered its outlook Wednesday that an Atlantic system approaching the Caribbean will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, while also keeping tabs on a second system already in the Caribbean.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.”

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in two days and 40% in the next seven.

That’s down from 60% it had forecast earlier in the week.

If it were to develop enough, it could become Tropical Storm Nadine.

The NHC also was tracking a broad area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

“Some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward towards Central America,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.”

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days, and 20% in the next seven.

Colorado State University’s two-week outlook expects Atlantic hurricane activity will likely be above normal.

“There are some signs of potential western Caribbean development later in week two,” said CSU meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

So far the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 13 named storms, nine of which were hurricanes, including three that struck Florida.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

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