Forecasters are watching a potential new system that could approach the Caribbean

MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances — one with a growing chance of developing and approaching the Caribbean this week and another that could soon form in the Caribbean.

As of Monday afternoon, forecasters have upped the chances of the Atlantic system strengthening into a tropical depression in the next five days to a 60% shot, with a 20% chance of it happening in the next two days. Both figures are higher than they were Monday morning.

The system, midway between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean, was in a patch of dry air, which hampers storm development. But the hurricane center expects it to keep moving westward, where it could find better conditions in a few days.

If the system does strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday.

From there, global supercomputer weather models offer a mixed bag of options — it could move either straight west, through the Caribbean and across Dominica and Cuba, or slightly north, where it could either approach Florida and the Bahamas or curve away from land altogether.

“In other words, we won’t know where it could be going until we see where it is when it reaches the islands in about 4 or 5 days. Stay tuned,” Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for Royal Caribbean, posted on X.

The second system was just marked on the hurricane center’s map Monday afternoon. The disturbance, near central America, has an opportunity to strengthen into a tropical depression by the middle of the week if it stays over water, forecasters said.

As of Monday afternoon, the hurricane center gave it a 20% chance of strengthening in the next seven days and no chance of strengthening in the next 48 hours. At the time, hurricane models generally take this storm into the Central American coast.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week,” the National Hurricane Center wrote.

The next name on the storm list is Nadine.