A tropical disturbance in the mid-Atlantic has an increasing chance of developing and approaching the Caribbean this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters have upped its chances over the weekend to a 50% shot at strengthening into a tropical depression in the next five days, with a 10% chance of it happening in the next two days.

As of Monday morning, the system was several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands in a patch of dry air, which isn’t great for storm development. But the hurricane center expects it to keep moving westward, where it could find better conditions in a few days.

If the system does strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday.

From there, global supercomputer weather models offer a mixed bag of options — either straight west, through the Caribbean and across Dominica and Cuba, or slightly north, where it either approaches Florida and the Bahamas or curves away from land altogether.

“In other words, we won’t know where it could be going until we see where it is when it reaches the islands in about 4 or 5 days. Stay tuned,” Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for Royal Caribbean, posted on X.

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