'A dead heat': Trump gains in news round of polls, 'Harris honeymoon' over

Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald on Oct 13, 2024

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The “Harris honeymoon” has ended and the presidential race is locked in a tie with just over three weeks to go before the polls close on the 2024 election, according to polling from three major news networks.

According to an NBC News poll released Sunday, Trump has regained his footing after seeing a small slip in support following his lone debate appearance against Vice President Kamala Harris.

“In the new poll – which was conducted Oct. 4-8 – Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates,” NBC wrote.

According to the pollsters who conducted the survey on behalf of the news agency, “the race is a dead heat.”

“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said.

“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff explained.

Trump has completely closed the 5-point gap seen in the NBC’s September survey, according to the most recent poll, and pollsters say the election will come down to who manages to drive turnout.

“Assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49% – 46%,” pollsters wrote.

“But assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49% – 47%,” they wrote.

The poll found a “massive gender gap” exists between the candidates. Harris sees far more support from women than Trump, coming it at 55% to 41%, while Trump far outperforms her among men at 56% to 40%.

Asked if there was an issue so important to a voter that a candidate’s stance on the matter could sway their support, abortion came in the as the top answer, followed by the border and immigration, protecting democracy, and the economy and inflation.

“Harris’ best issue versus Trump was abortion (19-point lead over Trump on handling the issue), health care (+10) and being competent and effective (+5). Trump’s top issues and qualities: dealing with the border (+25), handling the situation in the Middle East (+18) and dealing with the cost of living (+11),” pollsters wrote.

Both candidates, according to NBC, now have a net unfavorable popularity score.

“Harris’ rating stands at 43% positive, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and young voters. That’s not too far removed from Trump’s 43% positive, 51% negative score (-8) in this same poll,” the network wrote.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted mostly via cellphones and holds a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

A CBS News poll of more than 2,700 likely voters found Harris up by three points, but again within the margin of error, and that “an already close, effectively even contest” has drawn “even tighter.”

“Trump is one point closer to Harris nationally than last month,” that network wrote. “The decisive battleground states also remain effectively even, a mere one point apart now.”

An ABC News/Ipsos poll shows the Vice President ahead by two points and voters carrying “dreary economic attitudes and sharply divergent views on social policies.”

“Harris has 50% support to Trump’s 48% among likely voters in the national survey, with a similar 49-47% result among all registered voters,” ABC wrote.

Trump’s senior campaign staff — Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, and Tony Fabrizio — answered the polls with a memo, in which they proclaimed Harris’ campaign is “cracking.”

“We predicted the Harris Honeymoon back in July, and did she get a free ride from her media allies,” they wrote.

However, there is a huge difference between summer baseball games and any inning played in October.

“As most observers know, the campaign season begins in earnest after Labor Day. When you compare the state of the race on the Day after Labor Day to now, what you see will be eye-opening and likely the reason many smart operatives on the other side are wringing their hands over the current state of the race,” they wrote.

As far as all of the upward political momentum that Harris seemed to experience when she jumped to the top of the Democratic ticket? That was just a blip, Trump’s team says.

“Frankly, it never really existed beyond the confines of July,” they wrote.

Harris is failing to show voters she’s an effective “change agent” this cycle, according to Trump’s team, or “that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people’s financial situation.”

“The bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job,” they wrote. “Voters in focus group after focus group aren’t buying it and are uncertain about who Kamala really is.”

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