McCormick narrows gap with Casey in Pennsylvania, according to new poll

Sean Collins Walsh, The Philadelphia Inquirer on Oct 12, 2024

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PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race is tightening, with Republican Dave McCormick now just 4 percentage points behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, according to a new poll by The Inquirer, The New York Times, and Siena College.

About 48% of respondents said they supported Casey, who is seeking a fourth term, while 44% backed McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO. The survey was of 857 likely Pennsylvania voters reached by phone between Oct. 7 and Oct. 10. The margin of error was 3.3%.

Two weeks before that, Casey was leading McCormick 49% to 40% in a similar survey conducted by The Inquirer, The Times, and Siena College from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16. (Unlike the September poll, the new survey included third-party candidates, who polled at less than 1%.)

Casey, whose father was governor and is well-known to Pennsylvania voters, has led in surveys throughout the race. But he has never consistently polled above 50%, leaving the door open for McCormick — who is making only his second run for office — to make up ground as undecided voters become more familiar with him.

Both campaigns have said they expect the race to be decided by a razor-thin margin.

The new survey began two days after Casey and McCormick met at Harrisburg’s abc27 for their first televised debate, a scrappy affair in which both candidates worked relentlessly to advance their lines of attack on the other.

Leaning on McCormick’s time as an executive at the world’s largest hedge fund, Connecticut-based Bridgewater Associates, Casey repeatedly cast McCormick as an out-of-state financier disconnected from the concerns of Pennsylvanians. McCormick, meanwhile, repeatedly attacked Casey for being a “weak” career politician with little to show for his 18 years in Washington.

They will debate for a second and final time at Philadelphia’s 6abc on Tuesday.

While Casey’s narrowing lead in the new poll was good news for McCormick, there were troubling signs for the Republican in the results as well.

About 43% of respondents said they held a favorable view of McCormick, and 43% said they viewed him unfavorably. Casey, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by 48% of voters, and unfavorably by 42%.

Additionally, 48% of respondents said they would prefer Democrats retain control of the Senate, while 46% said they hope the GOP wins a majority.

The Pennsylvania race once appeared to be one of the key races in determining which party controls the Senate next year. But given Democrats’ narrow majority and the party’s struggles in West Virginia and Montana, national political observers are now increasingly confident Republicans will take the upper chamber regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania.

Instead, the Casey-McCormick race and a handful of other competitive elections will likely decide the size of the Republican majority come January.

Election Day is Nov. 5.