US believes that Ukraine can hold Russian territory for months

Natalia Drozdiak and Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg News on Oct 9, 2024

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The United States assesses that Ukraine will be able to hold on to the territory its forces have claimed in Russia’s Kursk region for at least several months if not longer, according to senior American officials.

Ukraine so far hasn’t faced any significant problems getting supplies to the Kursk area, as Russian forces have only launched limited counterattacks and focused instead on advances in Ukraine’s east, according to the officials, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity Wednesday.

Kyiv’s forces are now also seeing a steadier supply of artillery ammunition after months of suffering through shortages, the officials said. The steadier supply of shells is credited in part to efforts by allies, including a Czech-led initiative to deliver the munitions and a US-French led effort to develop Ukraine’s artillery capability over the long run.

Ukraine’s offensive over the summer into the Kursk region initially left Kyiv’s allies impressed with its quick initial success. But it also raised concern among some officials that the cost of the operation could prove high if Moscow were to counterattack and drive out the Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country could use that territory as a bargaining chip in talks, though it’s unclear when negotiations with Moscow could take place given Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated no willingness to do so in earnest.

Ukraine’s allies are detecting that Zelenskyy may be getting ready to adopt a more flexible approach as they look at ways to help bring an end to Russia’s war, Bloomberg reported.

Ukraine is trying to work out how to best defend itself through the winter but also starting to plan for next year, including with additional brigades as they increase recruitment and get better equipment and training, the senior U.S. officials said.

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