Will Hurricane Milton hit Orlando?

ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane Milton remained a major Category 4 hurricane Tuesday with a projected path that could bring it into Tampa Bay, across Central Florida south of Orlando and out through Brevard County.

As of the National Hurricane Center 5 a.m. advisory, Hurricane Milton was located about 560 miles southwest of Tampa already turning northeast in the Gulf of Mexico and targeting Florida.

The NHC’s latest forecast cone shows the system still a strong Category 3 major hurricane with 125 mph sustained winds and 155 mph gusts on Thursday by 1 a.m. just inland over Tampa Bay.

Here’s the latest forecast track:

The track has it exiting the state near Cape Canaveral and never losing hurricane intensity, still with 90 mph sustained winds and 105 mph gusts once offshore in the Atlantic.

Gov. Ron DeSantis warned of bigger impacts in Central Florida compared to the light damage seen from Hurricane Helene.

“You’re going to have the storm going right across, potentially I-4 or certainly in the center part of the state somehow, and that is going to cause damage,” he said. “That’s going to generate debris. It’s going to cause potential damage to infrastructure. So just be prepared for that and do what you need to do to be able to execute your plan.”

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has all of inland Central Florida under a hurricane warning as well as flood watches as of Tuesday morning.

“Major Hurricane Milton will bring the potential for strong to damaging winds, considerable rainfall flooding, a few tornadoes, and battering surf and coastal flooding along portions of the coast,” said NWS meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “Conditions will deteriorate Wednesday and Wednesday night and linger through Thursday.”

Rain forecasts have now increased with the NHC predicting some areas getting as much as 18 inches on its path.

Sedlock said 5-10 inches can be expected near north of Orlando down to Melbourne with 3-6 inches farther south.

“Locally higher amounts are possible, especially just north of the track of Milton” Sedlock said. “Rain intensity will quickly diminish through the day on Thursday as Milton moves off of the east Florida coast and departs the area.”

The heavy rainfall in the northern parts of Central Florida could mean considerable flooding impacts along the St. John`s River and across urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas, he said.

A flood warning is already in effect for the St. Johns River near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake counties.

“The time is now to enact your local hurricane plan and ensure you have supplies, and everything else necessary to ride out this storm,” Sedlock said.

Another issue from the forecast track will be battered coasts along Brevard and Volusia counties. Hurricane Ian causes severe erosion, heavy surf and coastal flooding especially in Volusia when it hit in a similar manner crossing from west to east.

The Space Force’s Space Launch Delta 45 late Saturday put Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Patrick Space Force Base under HURCON 3 predicting surface winds in excess of 58 mph within 48 hours.

“Forecasts show Hurricane Milton is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane when it arrives in our area,” said SLD 45 public affairs media chief Emre Kelly. “Therefore, there is no mandatory evacuation. While the anticipated impacts of this storm are not driving a mandatory evacuation, we do expect downed trees, power outages, possible cell service outages and localized flooding.”

The state suspended all tolls in west Florida, Central Florida and Alligator Alley as of 10:30 a.m. Monday for seven days.

In Central Florida, UCF and Valencia State College canceled classes Tuesday-Thursday while Rollins canceled classes for the whole week. Lake, Osceola, Orange and Volusia counties announced no canceled classes on Wednesday, some on Thursday already, and some with shortened hours or limited after-school activities Tuesday.

SunRail announced it would shut down beginning Tuesday and remain closed through at least Thursday depending on the storm impact.

Commercial operations at both Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport will cease beginning Wednesday morning, although both airports will remain open for emergency use.

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