Romania's government teeters over pre-election court decision

Romania’s governing coalition was thrown into turmoil after a junior partner effectively ended a three-year alliance weeks before key elections are set to shake up the political landscape in Bucharest.

Liberal party leader Nicolae Ciuca lashed out at a top court decision to remove a far-right candidate from the Nov. 24 presidential race, saying the move played into the hands of the governing Social Democrats. The Liberals will prop up the governing coalition with their rivals for now, but the political coalition “stops here,” Ciuca said.

The abrupt decision casts a shadow over a coalition between the long-time political antagonists, which has provided a measure of stability for the past three years. Polls ahead of a Dec. 1 parliamentary election show neither party likely to muster a majority on their own as the Black Sea nation struggles to rein in a budget deficit while bolstering growth.

“The consequences of this decision put a big question mark over democracy in Romania,” Ciuca wrote in a Facebook post. He said the Constitutional Court was stacked with judges appointed by the long-dominant Social Democrats — and the decision was meant to “eliminate an adversary.”

Ciuca’s move came in the backdrop of a presidential election that pits him against Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the Social Democratic leader, and former NATO deputy chief Mircea Geoana. Ciuca, who led the government until he handed over the premiership last year to Ciolacu as part of a power-sharing agreement, trails significantly in the polls.

Back-to-Back Votes

Cristian Pirvulescu, a professor at the National University of Political Studies, pointed to the political calculus, with Ciuca’s fortunes in the presidential race potentially dragging down the party in the general election a week later.

“Ciuca will likely fail to enter the second round of the presidential elections — and thus his party will fail to get a boost in the general elections vote,” Pirvulescu said.

The back-to-back elections — with a presidential runoff scheduled for Dec. 8 if no candidate wins 50% — will shake up a political environment in which Romania’s main parties have ruled in a delicate alliance since 2021.

Even if the current coalition stays afloat, a rift could dampen chances at reviving a government as Romania struggles to trim a budget gap forecast to widen to 7% of economic output this year. That may force a post-election shift in fiscal policy as investors look to see what measures, including tax hikes, are put in place in Bucharest.

The leu, a currency closely managed by the central bank, was unchanged against the euro on Tuesday.

The Social Democrats have said they want to extend the coalition with the junior Liberals to press ahead with reforms. But Ciuca’s move, beyond the political dimension, shows frustration with the alliance.

In a ruling viewed by many across the political spectrum as controversial, Romania’s top court on Monday rejected the candidacy of Diana Sosoaca, a far-right politician who opposes the European Union and NATO and favors ties with Russia, for breaching eligibility standards related to democratic values and the rule of law.

Ciuca said that, in addition to handing the Social Democrats the political advantage, the court overstepped its mandate.

Ciolacu refrained from responding directly to Ciuca’s decision and called for a “serious discussion” over the need to reform the constitutional court to ensure proper checks and balances.