Milton strengthens to Category 3 overnight as hurricane watches hit Florida coast

MIAMI — Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane overnight, days ahead of its expected landfall on Florida’s west coast, where it could bring up to 12 feet of storm surge.

Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a hurricane or tropical storm watch, although the latest forecast still keeps the eye of the storm crossing ashore near Sarasota sometime late Wednesday.

The exact landfall location is hard to pinpoint this far out and will continue to wiggle back and forth as the National Hurricane Center refines its projections. However, the area just south of the eye is expected to see the worst storm surge. The first projections for storm surge suggest the vulnerable Tampa Bay region, including Bradenton, could see 8 to 12 feet of surge. Areas just to the south and north, including Naples, could see 5 to 10 feet.

For many communities on the Gulf Coast, that could be worse than the devastating Hurricane Helene, which struck just under two weeks ago. State and local officials are racing around the clock to clear debris left on streets from Helene, which could become projectiles in Milton’s high winds.

Some mandatory evacuations have already been called in Manatee, Pasco and Pinellas Counties, but more are expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of Milton’s arrival.

On Sunday, Florida Department of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said the state was preparing for “the largest evacuation we have seen since, most likely, 2017 Hurricane Irma.”

As of 8 a.m., the National Hurricane Center said Milton was already a category 3 hurricane packing 125 mph sustained winds, ahead of schedule. The storm’s sustained winds went from 50 mph at 5 a.m. Sunday to 120 mph at 7 a.m. Monday.

The latest forecast calls for continued strengthening, up to Category 4, in the super warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

It also calls for Milton to come back down to a Category 3 ahead of landfall, a move that may provide slightly weaker winds, but could also grow the size of the storm’s wind field considerably, which could spread its damaging effects over a broader area.

When and where the eye comes ashore matters for understanding which areas suffer the highest winds and surge, but Milton will likely be a threat to places far from the eye.

“The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall,” NHC Forecaster Jack Bevan wrote in the 5 a.m. update.