Post-debate polls say JD Vance was the clear winner, but Tim Walz still viewed favorably

The consensus among surveyed voters asked who won the debate between the Republican and Democratic vice presidential candidates is that Ohio’s U.S. Senator JD Vance out performed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Though Walz continues to enjoy a higher level of likability than Vance, the younger politician made a better show of presenting himself to voters when the pair met on October 1, according to a survey of likely voters released by Data for Progress.

“When voters who watched or read about the debate are asked who won, 48% say Vance and 46% say Walz. Among Independents, 47% say Vance and 44% say Walz,” pollsters wrote. “While a plurality of voters think Vance won the recent vice presidential debate, voters still have a more favorable opinion of Walz than Vance overall.”

According to the poll, despite Vance’s better performance, more voters say they like Walz when compared to Ohio’s junior senator. Pollsters say that after the vice presidential debate, Walz held a favorability rating of +6 — that’s 44% favorable, 38% unfavorable — while that Vance remains underwater at -6 — or 40% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

“Similarly, (Vice President Kamala) Harris’ rating is +2, while (former President Donald) Trump’s is -12. President Joe Biden sits at -10,” pollsters wrote.

The survey also shows that voters were not happy with Vance’s answer when he was asked whether or not Trump lost the 2020 election. Vance said he was focused on the future election, not rehashing the contests of the past and did not address the question.

Trump lost the 2020 election to Biden in the electoral college 306 to 232, with 270 needed to win. Biden also took the popular vote and broke a record doing so after winning 81,283,098 votes, or 51.3% of the ballots cast, compared to Trump who earned 74,222,958 votes, or 46.8% of the votes cast. Biden was the first presidential candidate in history to hold the support of more than 80 million voters.

Walz called Vance’s refusal to respond to what should have been a fairly straightforward question “a damning non-answer,” and most voters are apparently apprehensive about his dodge.

“Voters were informed that, at the vice presidential debate, Vance refused to say whether he thinks Trump lost the 2020 election and whether he would contest the 2024 vote if Harris wins next month. When asked if they are concerned about this, a majority of voters (54%), including majorities of Democrats (81%) and Independents (52%) and more than a quarter of Republicans (28%), say they are concerned, while 46% say they are not concerned,” pollsters wrote.

According to Trump’s campaign, Walz “destroyed the great state of Minnesota with his far-left lunacy — and now, he’s joining forces with Kamala Harris to unleash that destruction on the rest of the country.”

The Harris-Walz campaign, meanwhile, said that Vance can’t answer the 2020 question because Trump can’t get over the loss.

“Donald Trump can’t lead our country forward because he refuses to let go of the past. He can’t improve your family’s life because he is obsessed with himself. That’s why, instead of offering any real solutions, the closing message from Trump and his running mate to battleground voters is a lie to undermine our democracy,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement.

The vice presidential debate does not seem to have had much impact on the overall general election horse race, where polling still finds the ticket-topping candidates in an all-but-tied contest.

The Data for Progress poll, which leans left, found that voters favor “Harris over Trump by 3 points in a head-to-head race.”

RMG Research, where pollster Scott Rasmussen does his work, showed in a poll conducted on behalf of Napolitan News that the pair are running even.

“This is the first time the candidates have been tied in our national polling since mid-August. Since then, Harris has consistently maintained a very modest lead. Last week, Harris had a two point edge. Harris leads by five among women while Trump has a six point advantage among men,” those pollsters wrote.

Even without “leaners,” Harris and Trump remain tied, RMG found.

“On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– the candidates were tied at 48%,” they wrote.

This result is important, because if the pair were to go into the November 5th general election with their numbers still in lockstep, chances are better than not that Trump retakes the White House, according to RMG Research.

“A tie in the popular vote would likely lead to an Electoral College victory for Trump. A two-point popular vote victory by Harris would make the Electoral College race a toss-up,” they wrote.

Trump leads in the most important battlegrounds, according to the conservative-leaning pollster.

“Polling released yesterday showed Trump leading by four in Florida. Other recent Napolitan News surveys have shown close races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has significant leads in Ohio and Montana,” they wrote.

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