Florida Gulf Coast preps for massive evacuations as Milton hits hurricane strength

Florida’s west coast is preparing for a potentially massive evacuation ahead of a strike from Milton, which rapidly intensified into a hurricane on Sunday afternoon.

The Tampa Bay region, still reeling from massive coastal flooding from Helene — its worst hurricane in a century — remained in the crosshairs of Milton, a small but fast-strengthening storm expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane before it bulldozes the Gulf Coast.

At 2 p.m. Sunday, the center of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track went through Sarasota, a southern bump in the track, with more shifts — potentially back north or farther south — expected over the next few days.

Nearby communities were already swamped by record storm surge from the passage of Helene just over a week ago. Milton, on its current track, could potentially bring much worse. The tropical storm, packing winds of 80 mph Sunday afternoon, was expected to quickly strengthen into a major hurricane over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The path could shift over the next few days before Milton makes landfall but the hurricane will hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, likely as a Category 3.

“I’d urge Floridians to take this storm very seriously. Do not get wedded to the cone,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a Sunday morning press conference. “Anybody on the west coast of Florida … you have the potential for major impacts.”

The NHC dispatched Hurricane Hunter planes into Milton and could begin posting hurricane and storm surge watches as early as Sunday evening. Some counties began calling for mandatory evacuation orders on Sunday. In Manatee County, mandatory evacuation orders for zones A and B begin Monday at 2 p.m.

Kevin Guthrie, head of Florida’s Department of Emergency Management, urged Floridians to prepare to leave if asked to do so by local officials, ahead of potentially “life-threatening” amounts of storm surge.

“We are preparing for the largest evacuation we have seen since, most likely, 2017 Hurricane Irma,” he said.

DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 51 counties, including Miami-Dade and Broward, and directed state agencies to help expedite the cleanup in counties that still have piles of debris from Helene on their roads. The state sent high-water rescue vehicles to coastal western counties and is busy wrapping fire stations, hospitals and sewage plants with hundreds of feet of flood protection dams.

The governor warned that, although nearly all power has been restored in the two weeks since Helene hit, this storm could bring even more outages deeper inland.

“If we do have an I-4 storm, we’re going to have a lot of power outages. That’s something people should be prepared for,” he said. “This is not a good track for the state of Florida.”

Widespread flooding likely

For South Florida, the impact will depend on Milton’s path. Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties remain out of the NHC’s “cone of concern” early Sunday but that could change. At the very least, heavy rains could drench much of the region, starting Wednesday.

Much of the region was already under flash flood warnings with eight inches or more of rain possible in some areas from a separate system that is expected to cause street — and possibly home — flooding. If Milton’s path shifts south, tropical storm-force winds could sweep the area as well.

Just before landfall, forecasters predict Milton could be a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds moving at a pretty fast clip, 15 mph. That pace could help it hold onto its strength as it crosses the peninsula. The forecast calls for Milton to still be a category 1 hurricane by the time it emerges on Florida’s east coast, likely south of Daytona Beach.

That size and speed make storm surge a real threat to the West Coast — again.

On its latest track, Milton could bring more than 10 feet of storm surge to the inside of Tampa Bay and to Bradenton and Longboat Key to the south, according to a visualization from Louisiana State University’s storm surge model.

“Bottom line is, you’re potentially looking at storm surge that is more significant than what we saw with Hurricane Helene,” DeSantis said Sunday morning.

The hurricane center has not released official projections for how much storm surge the region might see, but it’s clear the numbers will be high near and to the south of landfall.

Because of Milton’s compact size, it’s tricky to predict exactly how strong it could get. The path ahead is lined with some of the warmest waters in the region, which did not cool off very much after Helene churned through. The hurricane center explicitly called for rapid intensification on Tuesday when it crosses those waters.

However, forecasters also watching a patch of wind shear and dry air that could buffet Milton around the same time as it’s passing through that hot water. Those factors could keep Milton from strengthening any further than the Category 3 the hurricane center is currently forecasting.

“The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area,” forecasters wrote in the 11 a.m. update.

Those same factors could also determine when and where Milton makes the turn to the northeast, which is expected on Tuesday. Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, said he’s watching it very closely.

“If the turn is delayed, then Milton could end up coming ashore well south of Tampa. However, if the turn is earlier, then it could come in north of Tampa,” he wrote on Twitter. “Either way, Tampa remains in the middle of the threat, and more importantly, we can’t wait until Tuesday to start preps, they need to be started now.”

“That’s the issue with hurricane preps, we often must prepare over a larger area well before we know for sure exactly who will get hit the hardest.”

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