Hurricane center warns new Tropical Storm Milton could target Florida as major hurricane

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center warned Saturday that newly formed Tropical Storm Milton could become a major hurricane before it hits Florida later this week.

The NHC said in a special 1:25 p.m. update what had been Tropical Depression Fourteen had grown into a tropical storm with 40 mph sustained winds.

“The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures,” said NHC Branch Chief Daniel Brown. “These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days.”

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. advisory, TD 14 was located about 210 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico and 350 miles west of Progresso, Mexico moving north-northeast at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

“Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system,” Brown stated in the advisory. “Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday.”

The system will continue to move slowly to the northeast or east-northeast for the next day, the NHC stated.

“A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek,” Brown said.

The forecast cone has the center about 75 miles west of Tampa Bay by 8 a.m. Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds and 130 mph gusts, but could strengthen further to Category 3 major hurricane before landfall.

“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday, Brown said. “Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.”

Tampa Bay and the rest of the Gulf Coast of the state just endured major storm surge and wind damage from Hurricane Helene last week.

Brown said intensification will be slower in the next 24 hours, but when an inner core becomes established, it could grow dramatically, with it approaching near major hurricane strength.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” Brown said. “The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.”

It’s forecast to drop 2 to 4 inches of rain over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, but then bring heavy rainfall to portions of Florida on Sunday and Monday well ahead of landfall.

“Heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday,” forecasters said. “This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.”

In addition, swells generated by the system will begin to hit the southwestern Gulf of Mexico coast today, spreading to the north and east by early next week.

Storm model tracks have it crossing either South Florida or Central Florida.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the rain associated with the system will worsen rainfall expected to already have saturated the area because of a stalled front that’s coming down from north Florida on Sunday.

“This feature may help boost rainfall totals across the Lake Okeechobee and Treasure Coast region, perhaps even as far north as Orlando and the Space Coast,” said said NWS meteorologist Brendan Schaper. “As a result, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is in place areawide with a slight risk concentrated from Orange and Brevard County southward along the Treasure Coast.”

He said areas could see 1-2 inches on the eastern half of central Florida with some areas getting more than 4 inches, especially near the barrier islands.

“If similar locations see appreciable rain Sunday and again on Monday, the threat for flooding will only tend to increase,” he said.

The NHC also is keeping track of two hurricanes in the Atlantic.

As of 11 a.m., Hurricane Kirk was located about 1,040 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and 1,525 miles west-southwest of the Azores moving north at 16 mph with sustained winds of 120 mph.

That keeps Kirk a major Category 3 hurricane, but it has lost steam since it reached Category 4 level earlier this week.

“A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday,” forecasters said Saturday. “Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.”

Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 60 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 230 miles from its center.

The NHC warns those in the Azores to keep track of the storm while its long-range forecast has it approaching Europe as a subtropical storm by early Wednesday.

Despite its distance across the Atlantic, swells from Kirk are expected to hit the east coast of Florida and elsewhere this weekend bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

As of 11 a.m. Hurricane Leslie, which became the eighth hurricane of the season late Friday, was located about 785 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, which makes it a Category 1 hurricane.

“A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday,” forecasters said Saturday. “Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday.”

Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 105 miles from its center.

The NHC also has its eyes on a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week.

“Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.”

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 13 named storms including eight hurricanes, three of which grew to major hurricane strength, four tropical storms and now a tropical depression. There was also one potential tropical cyclone that prompted NHC advisories, and why the latest depression took the number “14”, but it did not grow to depression strength before landfall.

Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said that puts the season slightly above average across several categories, although the season has seen less total number of days with any named storm than normal.

The development of Leslie into a hurricane, though, marked a major surge in hurricane formation with only nine-and-a-half days between Hurricane Helene and the three more to follow it — Isaac, Kirk and now Leslie. Four hurricanes had not formed that quickly since 2012, he said.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.