Republican group to spend $22.5 million to help Rogers in Michigan Senate race

DETROIT — A national Republican organization said Monday it's pouring $22.5 million into Michigan's open U.S. Senate contest to try to help GOP nominee Mike Rogers flip the seat with five weeks to go until Election Day.

A spokeswoman for the Senate Leadership Fund, a super political action committee affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, confirmed the spending on Monday morning ― the group's first investment in Michigan this cycle. SLF's Torunn Sinclair said the spending would include TV, radio and digital ad buys.

The investment by SLF is part of $67.5 million in new spending on ad reservations in Senate races in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that were announced Monday by SLF and first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

"We’re able to expand the Senate map because we have quality candidates who are keeping their races competitive. Keep it up!” SLF President and CEO Steven Law said in a statement.

The spending would be a boon for Rogers, a former seven-term congressman from White Lake Township who has been significantly outraised by three-term U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly, the Democratic nominee. Slotkin has spent more than $10 million on ads so far this cycle, while Rogers has split advertising costs with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and has spent roughly $2.7 million.

“It signals to national Republicans and national Republican donors that this is a race that is very much in play. When you look at how close the presidential contest is and the fact that it’s an open seat, as well, makes it very enticing,” said Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“Listen, Slotkin was the best nominee the Democrats could have gotten here. Clearly, you see it in the fundraising, but she hasn’t run statewide before. She doesn’t have the same name ID that a Debbie Stabenow has. ... I think this is a single-digit contest and it’s within the margin of error."

The $22.5 million infusion from SLF is would roughly double what's already been spent on Rogers' behalf by GOP allies.

“Coming in with five weeks left, it can be impactful. It could also help juice Rogers’ fundraising,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe, who is not involved in the Senate race.

“I do think that donors in the state have not stepped up at the level that they could. ... But this signal from Senator McConnell’s operation should get some of the folks who have been sitting on their wallets to reach in and help Rogers’ directly.”

Outside spending in the race had topped $58 million prior to Monday's announcement by SLF. Democrats held an edge in future ad reservations of about $16 million in the Michigan race through Friday, according to tracking by the firm AdImpact.

The Senate Majority PAC, with ties to the Senate Democratic leadership, has roughly $14.5 million reserved in Michigan for the last weeks of the campaign.

"This frantic, last-minute spending can’t disguise the simple truth ― Mitch McConnell doesn’t think that Mike Rogers can win," said Hannah Menchhoff, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC. "And it’s really no surprise considering Mike Rogers is a MAGA extremist who’s voted to take away Michiganders’ access to abortion, health care and Social Security."

A pro-Rogers super PAC, Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, added $4 million in independent expenditure spending on Sunday, according to a filing with the Federal Elections Commission. The group last month announced it would spend $4 million on two ads in support of Rogers and attacking Slotkin, and is now on track to spend $8 million in the four-week window between Sept. 13 and Oct. 13.

The Michigan Victory Committee, a joint fundraising venture between Rogers' campaign and the NRSC, began airing a new ad Monday as part of a $1 million broadcast buy in the Lansing and Grand Rapids markets that will air for the next two weeks.

The 30-second spot focuses on Rogers' bio serving in the U.S. Army, FBI and as chair of the House intelligence panel. "And now I want to serve as your senator because there's more work to do, to stop politicians like Elissa Slotkin, who give more to illegals than they do to Michigan families," Rogers tells the camera in the ad.

The Senate seat in Michigan is among the most competitive this cycle. It is open because longtime U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, is retiring.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Slotkin leading Rogers 48% to 43% for a period covering the last two weeks in September.

Axios reported Sunday that Slotkin cautioned donors in a virtual fundraiser last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is "under water" in Michigan.

"I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," Slotkin said, according to a recording obtained by Axios.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in late September that he expects both the presidential and Senate races in Michigan to be close, which is "the definition" of a battleground state.

"Elissa, she's in a good position, where she should be in this race," Peters said during a recent Christian Science Monitor breakfast event.

"The Democrats, they're all going to come home. I'm confident that Kamala Harris is going to win Michigan. It's going to be a tight race, but I'm confident she's going to win, and that's going to help Elissa."

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