Senate's most vulnerable list still dominated by Democrats

WASHINGTON — The Democrats’ fragile hold on the Senate majority is likely to come down to the fates of a dirt farmer from north-central Montana, a Rust Belt populist and a trio of senators from battleground states.

Less than eight weeks out from Election Day, Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. The ranking is based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts.

Roll Call typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members in each chamber, but as has been true all cycle, the Senate list keeps thinning. Our first assessment in May 2023 of the landscape for this fall featured Democrat Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Republican Mitt Romney of Utah; all have since taken themselves out of contention by announcing their retirements.

And our most recent list, published in early May, was led by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who resigned in August after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.

Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the majority next year — or one seat and control of the White House, since the vice president breaks ties. And with Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is all but guaranteed to pick up the seat in ruby-red West Virginia.

While our list looks only at vulnerable incumbents, there are several high-profile open seats whose outcomes will also shape the balance of power in the chamber.

One of the biggest Senate battlegrounds is in Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race Tilt Democratic.

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are vying for a seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Inside Elections also rates that race Tilt Democratic.

The GOP’s hopes in Maryland rest with former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who has been outspoken about his disagreements with presidential nominee Donald Trump. He’s facing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin. The contest is rated Likely Democratic, a nod to the state’s deep-blue underpinnings.

There are two other races worth keeping an eye on as the campaign season winds down.

Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico was showing signs he might be vulnerable in his reelection battle against Republican Nella Domenici, the former chief financial officer of a large hedge fund who is the daughter of former Sen. Pete Domenici. Heinrich began airing ads in June, and he was among the Democrats publicly calling for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid. But Biden’s exit from the presidential race is seen as giving some down-ballot Democrats, such as Heinrich, a lift.

And in Nebraska, union leader Dan Osborn is waging a nonpartisan campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. A poll by Split Ticket and SurveyUSA found the race essentially deadlocked, with Fischer at 39 percent and Osborn at 38 percent. But Fischer had $3 million on hand as of June 30, compared with $650,000 for Osborn. The race in a state Trump carried by 19 points in 2020 is rated Solid Republican.

Tester narrowly defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006, but since then, Montana has grown redder even as Tester has won by more comfortable margins. This year, he faces Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. An independent poll commissioned by AARP and released last week showed Tester trailing Sheehy by 8 percentage points. Tester had $10.9 million on hand at the end of June, while Sheehy had $3.3 million. Sheehy has already put $2.6 million of his own money into the race. Republicans have cast Tester as a D.C. insider who walks in lockstep with his party, while Democrats have portrayed Sheehy as a wealthy and untested candidate with weak ties to Montana who used racist stereotypes about the state’s Indigenous people.

Democrats are counting on ticket-splitters and Brown’s personal brand to boost him over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno in a state that’s expected to back Trump. Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has raised $53 million so far this cycle, the most of any endangered Senate Democrat. He had $10.7 million on hand to $4.5 million for Moreno. An Emerson College poll released last week put Brown up by 2 points even as Vice President Kamala Harris was 10 points behind Trump. Cryptocurrency-aligned super PACs back Moreno, and they are already spending millions for fund ads on his behalf.

Casey’s battle with Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who loaned his campaign $4 million as of June 30, moves up one spot since last spring’s list. Most public polls still show Casey, who is seeking a fourth term, with a lead over his challenger. But McCormick had $8.3 million on hand at the end of June, nearly as much as Casey’s $8.4 million, and his allies, including the Keystone Renewal PAC, are set to spend millions boosting his campaign over the next two months. As Republicans struggle to match Democrats’ spending advantage in other races, that could help McCormick in a state that both presidential campaigns are also aggressively targeting.

Rosen has appeared to be in a relatively strong position against Republican challenger Sam Brown, a retired Army captain. And that was true even before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Rosen’s maintained a roughly 10-point lead over Brown in multiple public polls, with a margin-of-error race at the top of the ticket between Harris and Trump. Back at the end of June, Rosen had $9.5 million on hand, having brought in nearly $32 million. Brown had only $3 million on hand after raising $9.7 million.

Baldwin’s bid for a third term against Eric Hovde, the CEO of banking and real estate businesses who loaned his campaign $13 million as of July 24, remains competitive in a swing state that will also be hotly contested on the presidential level. The latest Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found Baldwin leading Hovde, 52 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters when undecided voters were asked to pick. Baldwin has raised $36.5 million so far and had $6.3 million on July 24.

A prominent conservative with a national platform, Cruz faces a strong challenge from Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and Obama administration official. Cruz has defeated well-funded opponents before, but this is the first election since he traveled to Cancun during a devastating ice storm, drawing the wrath of many Texans. Recent polls have shown Cruz leading, however. An Emerson College poll with The Hill taken Sept. 3-5 had Cruz ahead by 4 points, while a Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 30 to Sept. 8 had him up by 5 points. He also had more money on hand: $12.7 million to Allred’s $10.5 million.

Polls show a tightening race in Florida, a state that has trended Republican in recent years and where the party had major success in the 2022 midterms. Democrats see a ballot referendum on abortion as helpful to former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign and have criticized Scott for an unpopular proposal he offered as Senate Republicans’ campaign chair in 2022 to sunset all federal programs, later exempting Medicare and Social Security. Still, Scott’s massive personal wealth could be daunting to overcome. He loaned his campaign $12.6 million as of July 31. He’s labeled his opponent as a radical and tried to tie her to the Democratic presidential ticket in Trump’s adopted home state.